存活分析模型於股權型群眾募資之探討

吳佳育

doi:10.6840/cycu201600395

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存活分析模型於股权型群众募资之探讨

The Study of Equity Crowdfunding for Survival Model

吴佳育 , 硕士　　导师：陈若晖　　

繁体中文 DOI： 10.6840/cycu201600395

群众募资；股权型；存活分析模型； Crowd Funding ； Equity-based ； Survival Analysis

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摘要 │ 参考文献 (84) │ 国际计量

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Recent years global business boom set off new ventures because of its lack resources, smaller scale, and more difficult to raise funds, the emergence of crowdfunding not only solves the fundraising problem for new enterprises, but also provides a new venture for a quick and easy financing pipeline. Because not all the projects can be successful funding, the main purpose of the funder in crowdfunding platform was to eagerly obtain successfully funding. How to attract inventors and increase the successful funding rates will be concerned with the funder. Previous studies were rarely to equity-based platform as a research sample.This research examined equity-based crowdfunding platform’s 268 successfully funded projects as our sample since the establishment date of platform to January, 2016. This paper classified for funding period, gender and industry categories. The study employs Cox proportional hazards model to explore about the influent factors of project success and influence level. Then, the parameter regression model was used to find out the optimal allocation model references for future studies.
The empirical results were as following:
(1).There were significant relationship between variables and the average days of successful funding. Thus, the influencing factors are fund target, the project of gender, the thumbs-up numbers by Facebook, equity offering, firm sizes, firm value, industry category, and expected return. After comparing the model of likelihood values and AIC values, the result of parameter regression models showed that the best predicted model was Gompertz distribution model to establish the survival project based on crowdfunding term, the gender, and the proposed industry.
(2).The possibilities of having successful funding factors were the project of female leader, non-technology industry project and the thumbs-up numbers by Facebook. The structure of gender entrepreneurship is changing, the male dominant entrepreneurship is no longer exist. Female became a greater influence. The thumbs-up numbers like popularity. The more thumbs-up numbers, the more likely the project to be success in attracting more investors to invest. In addition, the non-technology industry projects are able to attract investors having a good performance of successful funding on the platform. Also, the firm value reduced the possibility of a successful funding.
(3).The comparison of different results among model, the results of Gompertz model are more consistent with the influenced of all variables on a successful funding. This included the gender of the project, the number of thumbs-up by Facebook, firm size, firm value, industry category and expected return.

参考文献 ( 84 ) 〈TOP〉

毛治文、卓世昇，2011，「盈余管理与企业价值-聯立方程模型之应用」，会计审计论丛，1卷1期，页61-99。
连结：
王志成、许永声和刘政淮，2011，「上市柜公司首次出现继续经营疑虑後之动态分析」，证券市场发展季刊，23卷4期，页27-62。
连结：
王兰芬、张瑀珊和薛敏正，2011，「权益市值高估与代理成本间之关联性」，当代会计，12卷2期，页169-190。
连结：
江怡慧、洪志洋，2009，「台湾 IC 制造业厂商赴大陆投资之评估分析」，东亚论坛，464，页63-79。
连结：
李馨苹、张月琼，2006，「股权结构与公司风险之实证研究」，中华管理学报，7卷4期，页51-69。
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引用含有DOI的文献

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DOI可强化引用精确性、增强学术圈连结，并给予使用者跨平台的良好使用经验，目前在全世界已有超过五千万个对象申请DOI。如想对DOI的使用与概念有进一步了解，请参考（）。