零件庫存預測與可維修零件補貨模式實證研究

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doi:10.6840/cycu201700340

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零件库存预测与可维修零件补货模式实证研究

Spare part buffer forecasting and repairable parts replenishment model: an empirical study

巫国兴 , 博士　　导师：黄惠民　　

繁体中文 DOI： 10.6840/cycu201700340

零件可用度；零件初始库存预测；可维修零件补货； spare part availability ； initial buffer forecasting ； repairable spare part replenishment

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摘要 │ 参考文献 (108) │ 国际计量

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Due to the increasing market competition, shorter product life, small profit margin and rising customer service demand, after service quality is getting more and more important. Besides product design and function, after service is a vital decisive role in the success or fail in the new product introduction. Spare part availability will affect the speed of service, which directly impacts the service quality. Spare part lifecycle can be classified into four stages: preparation, production, EOL (End of Life) and EOS (End of Service) stages. In the preparation stage, due to lack of historical usage information, it is hard to apply traditional statistic technique to perform demand forecasting. Therefore, a different approach to forecast usage is necessary. The problem to new product sales forecasting can be done by extending the research done by Kahn (2002) who uses qualitative forecasting. In this study, we propose a JQM (Joint Qualitative Method)) method for forecasting the preparation stage of spare part demand. The key in JQM is centered in the similarity matrix, and by assuming the optimistic and pessimistic service level value of 90% and 60 % respectively. This standardization generates a method which enable user to choose the service level for the demand condition. 
For production and EOL stages, this study focusses in repairable spare part, since repairable spare part are likely the most expensive. Repairable spare part replenishing model can be classified into a multi-echelon inventory model with multi upper inventory hubs and lower level warehouses with limited or infinite stock. In current industrial practice, central component repair center intuitively assumes service point has a fixed cycle return for defects; this enables more convenient workload arrangement. However, a fixed cycle return model is not very efficient in handling the defect returns. Therefore, a LTAT (Least Turn Around Time) method is proposed in this study. The method leverages the minimum time in returning the repaired defect parts to the service point. The theory is based on the specific spare part failure rate to forecast the possible spare part shortage time; it is based on the minimum repair process time to reserve the time to ship defect parts to central component repair center. By this method, repaired parts should arrive at the service point in time and thus avoid any shortages. With LTAT method, the total inventory demand and replenishment cycle will be reduced compared to a fixed cycle model. This shows LTAT model can improve the efficiency of spare part inventory operation and the cost.

参考文献 ( 108 ) 〈TOP〉

Abdul-Jalbar, B., Segerstedt, A., Sicilia, J., and Nilsson, A., 2010. A new heuristic to solve the one-warehouse N-retailer problem, Computers & Operations Research, 37 (2), 265-272.
连结：
Agrawal, S., Singh, R. K., and Murtaza, Q., 2015. A literature review and perspectives in reverse logistics, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 97, 76-92.
连结：
Armstrong J. S. (ed.),2009. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
连结：
Ashayeri, J., Heuts, R., Jansen, A., and Szczerba, B., 1996. Inventory management of repairable service parts for personal computers: A case study, International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 16 (12), 74-97.
连结：
Batyrshin, I., and Sheremetov, L., 2007. Perception-Based Functions in Qualitative Forecasting, Studies in Computational Intelligence, 36, 119–134.
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使用DOI作为永久连结

引用含有DOI的文献

DOI可强化引用精确性、增强学术圈连结，并给予使用者跨平台的良好使用经验，目前在全世界已有超过五千万个对象申请DOI。 如想对DOI的使用与概念有进一步了解，请参考 （ ） 。

DOI可强化引用精确性、增强学术圈连结，并给予使用者跨平台的良好使用经验，目前在全世界已有超过五千万个对象申请DOI。如想对DOI的使用与概念有进一步了解，请参考（）。