土石流發生機率分析－以花蓮縣銅門村及東興部落為應用對象

Probabilistic Analysis of Debris-Flow Occurrence - Application to Tounmen and Tungshing Villages, Hualien

10.29417/JCSWC.199903_30(1).0007

詹錢登(Chyan-Deng Jan)；陳晉琪(Jinn-Chyi Chen)

土石流 ； 發生條件 ； 發生機率 ； 不確定性 ； debris flow ； occurrence criteria ； occurrence probability ； uncertainty

中華水土保持學報

30卷1期（1999 / 03 / 01）

65 - 75

繁體中文

本文以機率觀點探討山坡地水文特性及地文特性與土石流發生條件之關聯性。以山坡地鬆散堆積土層之水位代表水文特性：以土層厚度、土層坡度、土層比重、土層內土壤之體積濃度、土壤凝聚力及土壤摩擦角等六個參數來代表地文特性。以花蓮縣銅門村及東興部落之土石流發生地爲例，依據這些水文及地文參數之不確定性，分別以一階二級動差法（FOSM法）及蒙地卡羅模擬法（MCSM法），分析此二地區在不同土石流發生機率下之土石流發生條件。

The relationship of debris-flow occurrence criteria with geological and hydrologic parameters was developed, basing on a probabilistic concept in this paper. The geological parameters include the thickness of sediment layer, the slope angle of the channel, the specific gravity of unsaturated soil, the concentration of saturated soil, and the cohesion and the friction angle of soil. The water level was treated as a hydrologic parameter. The method proposed in this paper was applied to analyze the occurrence probability of debris flow in the Tungshing and Tounmen villages, Hualien. According to the uncertainties of geological and hydrologic parameters in these two villages, the probabilities of debris-flow occurrence at different water levels. were evaluated with the first-order second-moment method (FOSM) and the Monte-Carlo simulation method(MCSM), respectively.

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