氣候變遷下極端降雨引致廣域坡地災害評估技術之研究

Study on the Assessment of Regional Rainfall-Induced Landslide Hazards under Extreme Climate Conditions

10.29417/JCSWC.201203_43(1).0007

顧承宇(Cheng-Yu Ku)；陳建忠(Chien-Jung Chen)；張怡文(I-Wen Chang)；許世孟(Shih-Meng Hsu)；陳耐錦(Nai-Chin Chen)；溫惠鈺(Hui-Yu Wen)

坡地災害 ； 極端降雨 ； 邊坡穩定 ； 廣域 ； 氣候變遷 ； Landslide hazards ； extreme rainfall ； slope stability ； regional scale ； climate change

中華水土保持學報

43卷1期（2012 / 03 / 01）

75 - 84

繁體中文

本研究針對基隆河流域於極端降雨事件下山坡地社區災害之影響進行研究以了解氣候變遷之極端降雨事件對廣域山坡地社區災害所可能之影響，研究首先蒐集雨量資料，統計研究區域雨量於時空之分布特性，之後利用定率法建立廣域淺層坡地崩塌模式，進而探討基隆河流域內之降雨與坡地社區崩塌之關係，並瞭解區域內颱風豪雨事件造成坡地社區環境災害特性。另本研究以降雨延時24小時之不同重現期雨量預測研究區域內不同極端降雨條件下之崩塌潛勢分布，研究成果可用以瞭解高潛勢區域分布情形，而有效降低災害發生時生命財產之損失。

To understand the possible influence of extreme rainfall events due to climate change on hillside disasters, this study on the assessment of regional rainfall-induced landslide hazards under extreme climate conditions in Keelung river watershed was conducted. First, rainfall data were collected to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in the study area. Then, the regional rainfall-induced landslide model was established based on the deterministic approach and used to simulate the extreme rainfall induced landslides in the study area. Finally, the prediction of landslide susceptibility could then be made using different return periods of 24-hour rainfalls. The results demonstrate this study could provide useful information for predicting the spatial distribution of areas susceptible to landslides and may mitigate hazards.

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