Water Volume and Salinity Forecasts of the Small Aral Sea for the Years 2025

10.29417/JCSWC.201309_44(3).0008

Behzod Gaybullaev；Su-Chin Chen；Yi-Ming Kuo

Aral Sea ； salinity ； irrigation ； Holt's linear trend

中華水土保持學報

44卷3期（2013 / 09 / 01）

265 - 270

英文

The Aral Sea is a saline endorheic basin in Central Asia. From 1960 onwards the lake started to shrink because of the utilization of rivers water for irrigation purposes. Since the irrigation began, massive amounts water has been used. Therefore, the lake divided into two parts in 1987: the Small Aral Sea in the north and the Large Aral Sea in the south. In the Small Aral Sea, the average water salinity increased from 25-130 g/l from 1987 to 2011. From 1999 - 2011, the water volume of the Small Aral Sea increased from 12.6 to 22.0 km^3. Holt's linear trend forecast method was used to predict the water volume and salinity of the Small Aral Sea from 2010 to 2025. The prediction results indicate that the water volume of the Small Aral Sea will increase to around 22.8 km^3, and salinity of the Small Aral Sea will rise to approximately 190 g/l by 2025.