以地文內在因子及水文外在因子建構國有林地崩塌潛勢警戒模式

Establishment of Landslide Susceptibility Early Warning Model in National Forest Areas Based on Geo-intrinsic and Hydro-extrinsic Factors

10.29417/JCSWC.201806_49(2).0003

陳樹群(Su-Chin Chen)；吳俊毅(Chun-Yi Wu)

淺層崩塌 ； 崩塌潛勢 ； 警戒模式 ； 國有林地 ； Shallow landslide ； landslide susceptibility ； early warning model ； National Forest Area

中華水土保持學報

49卷2期（2018 / 06 / 01）

89 - 97

繁體中文

本研究先針對全台國有林地建立崩塌潛勢模式，再設定崩壞個數比超過5%時之相應潛勢值為潛勢門檻值，最後利用各網格內在潛勢值與門檻值之差值，即可推估各網格之崩塌雨量警戒基準值。分析結果顯示崩塌雨量警戒基準值多略大於國家災害防救科技中心坡地災害警戒值，且多小於水土保持局土石流警戒基準值，推估結果尚屬合理。本模式所得之的坡面網格警戒基準值，具有更佳的空間解析度，可做為更精細的坡面尺度警戒機制之發展基礎。

Landslide susceptibility models of National Forest Areas in Taiwan were established in this study. A landslide susceptibility index corresponding to a landslide ratio larger than 5% was selected as a threshold value. The difference between the intrinsic landslide susceptibility index and the threshold value in each grid was used to estimate rainfall threshold values for shallow landslide warnings. The rainfall threshold values for shallow landslide warnings in most grids were slightly larger than those for slopeland disaster warnings and smaller than those for debris flow warnings. These results were rational. The rainfall threshold map estimated using this model exhibited a desirable spatial resolution and could be a basis for a more precise slopeland early warning system.

1. Alexander, D.(2002).Principles of emergency planning and management.Harpended:Terra Publishing.
2. Caine, N.(1980).The Rainfall Intensity Duration Control of Shallow Landslides and Debris Flow.Geografiska Annaler,62,23-27.
3. Cannon, S.H.,Ellen, S.D.(1985).Rainfall Conditions for Abundant Debris Avalanches in San Francisco Bay California.California Geology,38(12),267-272.
4. Chen, S.C.,Huang, B.T.(2010).Non-structural Mitigation Programs for Sediment-related Disasters after the Chichi Earthquake in Taiwan.Journal of Mountain Science,7(3),291-300.
5. Keefer, D.K.,Wilson, R.C.,Mark, R.K.,Brab, E.E.,Brown, W.M.,Ellen, S.D.,Harp, E.L.,Wieczorek, G.F.,Alger, C.S.,Zatkin, R.S.(1987).Real-Time Landslide Warning During Heavy Rainfall.Science,238,921-925.
6. Osanai, N.,Shimizu, T.,Kuramoto, K.,Kojima, S.,Noro, T.(2010).Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with Radial Basis Function Network.Landslide,7(3),325-338.
7. Wieczorek, G.F.(1987).Effect of Rainfall Intensity and Duration on Debris Flows in Central Santa Cruz Mountains, California.Review in engineering geology,7,93-104.
8. Wu, C.H.,Chen, S.C.,Chou, H.T.(2011).Geomorphologic characteristics of catastrophic landslides during typhoon Morakot in the Kaoping Watershed, Taiwan.Engineering Geology,123,13-21.
9. Wu, C.Y.,Chen, S.C.(2013).Integrating spatial, temporal, and size probabilities for the annual landslide hazard maps in the Shihmen watershed, Taiwan.Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,13,2353-2367.
10. 行政院農業委員會水土保持局=Soil and Water Conservation Bureau(2015).104 年土石流年報.行政院農業委員會水土保持局=Soil and Water Conservation Bureau.
11. 林彥享, Y.H.(2003)。Taiwan，國立中央大學應用地質研究所=National Central University。
12. 范正成, J.C.,吳明峰, M.F.(2001)。一級溪流土石流危險因子及其與臨界降雨線之關係。中華水土保持學報，32(3)，227-234。
13. 國家災害防救科技中心=National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction(2015).颱洪應變參考手冊（2015）.國家災害防救科技中心=National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction.
14. 陳振宇, C.Y.(2013)。以雨量為基礎之土砂災害警戒系統成效評估—以台灣及日本為例。中華水土保持學報，44(1)，50-64。
15. 陳樹群, S.C.,馮智偉, J.W.(2005)。應用 Logistic 迴歸繪製崩塌潛感圖－以濁水溪流域為例。中華水土保持學報，36(2)，191-201。
16. 陳樹群, S.C.,蔡喬文, C.W.,陳振宇, C.Y.,陳美珍, M.C.(2013)。筒狀模式之土壤雨量指數應用於土石流防災警戒。中華水土保持學報，44(2)，131-143。
17. 詹錢登, C.D.,李明熹, M.H.,黃婷卉, T.H.(2002)。,行政院農業委員會水土保持局=Soil and Water Conservation Bureau。
18. 謝正倫, C.L.(1991).土石流預警系統之研究.行政院農業委員會=Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, R.O.C..
19. 謝正倫, C.L.(1995)。,行政院農業委員會=Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, R.O.C.。
20. 瀬尾克美、船崎昌継(1973)。土砂害（主に土石流的被害）と降雨量について。新防砂，26(2)