以水力耦合模式結合觀測資料協助建立邊坡災害預警

Development of Workflow for Slope Hazard Warning System Based on Coupled Hydromechanical Model and Observations

10.29417/JCSWC.202306_54(2).0005

倪春發(Chuen-Fa Ni)；李唯祺(Wei-Ci Li)；陳建帆(Chien-Fan Chen)；蔡正發(Cheng-Fa Tsai)；謝旻希(Min-Hsi Hsieh)；謝宜芸(Yi-Yun Hsieh)

邊坡穩定 ； 邊坡破壞 ； 水力－力學模式 ； 地下水位 ； 降雨雨型 ； Slope stability ； slope failure ； hydromechanical model ； groundwater level ； rainfall pattern

中華水土保持學報

54卷2期（2023 / 06 / 01）

141 - 149

繁體中文;英文

為了有效率地對具破壞潛勢的邊坡進行預警，本研究依據觀測資料與數值模式建立一套關鍵邊坡預警流程。首先依據保全對象、災害徵兆、資料完整性等原則篩選關鍵邊坡；接著利用其地下水、降雨與岩心資料等建立關鍵邊坡分析之概念模式。依據各邊坡概念模式，輔以觀測與試驗資料，使用二維水力－力學耦合數值模式制定邊坡之破壞預警值。本研究應用此流程於台灣台北市篩選出的四個案例，考慮兩種理想雨型情境，分析強降雨下之邊坡穩定與地下水位變化特徵。此一邊坡穩定與降雨及地下水位特徵可為預警指標，整體分析流程亦可作為後續應變機制建立之參考。

This study proposed a workflow that integrated site-specific observations and numerical models to manage high-risk slopes. The workflow first evaluated slope failure potential based on available observations (e.g., protected objects, failure precursor, and the completeness of site-specific data) and identified four high-risk slopes in the Taipei City area. This study then employed two-dimensional coupled hydromechanical model to assess the thresholds of slope failure. The influential factors for slope stability in simulations included the rainfall patterns, variations in groundwater, and geological models based on available data. To verify the hydromechanical model, site-specific observations were used, and the slope failure thresholds for each site were obtained accordingly. Simulation results showed that the effects of rainfall and groundwater on slope stability were critical indicators of hazardous slopes. In the future, the proposed workflow could be a reference for creating efficient warning systems and implementing effective measures at potential hazardous slope sites.

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