新興產業發展的複雜調適系統觀點-以台灣E-Learning產業為例

A CAS Perspective on the Development of Emerging Industries-A Research of E-Learning Industry in Taiwan

10.6504/JOM.2004.21.06.02

蔡敦浩(Stephen Tsai)；藍紫堂(Tzu-Tang Lan)

新興産業 ； 複雜理論 ； 混沌科學 ； 策略管理 ； 電子學習 ； Emerging Industry ； Complexity Theory ； Chaos ； Strategic Management ； E-Learning

管理學報

21卷6期（2004 / 12 / 01）

715 - 732

繁體中文

新興產業具有許多特性，包括高度的科技不確定性、産業結構不完整、衆多新創公司與副産品、資訊不完整購買者以及政府的幹預…等等，這些特性使得新興産業的發展呈現多元化以及高度的複雜性，與過去産業的直線性發展是相當不一樣的，因此有以不同的理論角度作爲研究的切入點。 本研究運用複雜的觀點，描繪了台灣E-Learning産業發展的動態非線性過程，發現到新興産業和發展的確具備複雜調適系統的四個特性：不同基本心智模式和行動者，由行動中去調整其行爲、間斷均衡的環境、系統的秩序是穿刺而非預先規劃的、複雜的綱絡關系與共同演化。這四個特性與傳統策略觀點有相當大的差異，因此指導企業行動的傳統策略觀點必須加以調整。本研究最後整理出了四個適合用來發展新興産業的策略新觀點。

Every emerging industry has the following unique characteristics: strong technological uncertainty, imperfect industry construct, many in embryonic companies and spin-offs, first time buyers with information asymmetry, and government intervention. All these characteristics result in the diversification and complexity of an emerging industry s development. This is quite different from traditional industries; therefore we must examine the subject with a different theoretical perspective. In order to acquire an in-depth understanding of the development of emerging industries, this research is conducted from the perspective of complexity theory. In this research, the complexity adaptive system is employed to serve as a framework for industry analysis which reviews the behaviors and strategies adopted by the firms in the E-Learning industry. By studying the novel E-Learning industry, this paper aims to seek out the developmental model of emerging industries and to present the concrete implications for management. This paper first discusses the origin of chaos science and the development of complexity theory. These are then followed by the background of the E-Learning industry in Taiwan. In the third section, methodologies adopted in this research, including data collection and analytical methods are explained in detail. The acquired data is then analyzed using the complexity adaptive system which ultimately reveals the dynamic developmental process of the E-Learning industry in Taiwan. Finally this paper concludes with some implications derived from the research. Taking a comprehensive look at the E-Learning industry in Taiwan, there are several observed phenomena which are quite different from those experienced in the past. This indicates the ever increasing developmental diversity and complexity of emerging industries in today marketplace. Due to a minimal level of entry barriers, it is relatively easy for new players to enter the E-Learning industry. In 2000, almost 20 companies entered into the E-Learning industry. The scale of investments made by these companies was not very large and depending on the market situation, the size of the firms could be flexibly adjusted. It is also relatively simple for these new entrants to withdraw from the E-learning industry. As a result, there are frequent and significant shj/is in market positions, particularly when small firms explore and seize opportunities which larger-scale firms fail to spot. From a technical aspect, firms in the E-learning industry are required to integrate a variety of technology spanning different fields. These technologies include networking, multimedia, computer-mediated teaching and others, This is quite different from traditional industries and thus the innovation curve of the E-Learning industry quite disparate. This research is a qualitative case study which entails a 28-month period for acquiring data and information. The datacollection period occurred between August 2000 and December 2002 and personal interviews were the primary sources for data collection. Interviews were conducted using the semi-structured questionnaires and the duration of each interview was between one and two hours. In total, 18 interviews were carried out and interviewees included both middle and high management professionals as well as technical consultants. All targeted interviewees were considered crucial strategy makers to the firms involved. In order to judiciously analyze the data collected, all interviews were first tape recorded and the contents were subsequently transcribed, thoroughly studied and analyzed. Having repeatedly scrutinized the transcripts, we also composed business cases for each of the 8 firms interviewed. We endeavored to analyze the data by means of graphic reorganization. Once further questions or information gaps were uncovered, we would conduct further research in order to quest for additional information and would ultimately discover the answers. This is an iterated process, which reflects the conscientiousness and accuracy of this research. It is almost guaranteed that every emerging industry has the following unique characteristics: high technological uncertainty, lack of industry standards, high involvement of start-up companies and spin-offs, first time buyers with inconsistent information, and government intervention. All these characteristics result in the diversification and complexity of an emerging industry s development. This is quite different from traditional industries. Therefore, we must examine the subject with a different, yet innovative theoretical approach. Our research adopted the Complexity Theory perspective to study the nonlinear dynamic developments of E-Learning industry in Taiwan. We discovered that the emerging industry c characteristics correspond to the four elements of the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) 1) Agents with varied schemas, 2) Punctuated equilibrium of environment, 3) Emerging orders of system, and 4) Intricate networks and convolution. The implications derived from this research induce scholars and managers to rethink the traditional strategic management theories, which may mislead contemporary businesses' development. Finally, we present four new strategic elements that will accelerate the development of an emerging industry. 1. Competition. A business's competitive strategies in the emerging industry do not raise the entry barriers for competitors. In actual fact, strong competitions build up the integration mechanisms for the particular industry. 2. Growth: A business s growth does not rely on long-term strategic planning, but on short-term creative action planning, and will dominate in the industry with luck coming. 3. Survival: A business c survival is not dependent upon an optimal strategic position but on strategic options. 4. Profits: The source of a business's profits does not fully rely on the economic-technical competitions, but on ”legitimacy” created through cooperation between businesses.

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