题名

Financial Analyst Characteristics and Accuracy in EPS Forecasting

DOI

10.6504/JOM.2007.24.04.07

作者

Sheng-Yung Yang;De-Wai Chou;Shuh-Chyi Doong;Hung-Wai Lin

关键词

Analysts' earnings forecasts ; Analyst characteristics ; Forecast accuracy ; Earning per share EPS

期刊名称

管理學報

卷期/出版年月

24卷4期(2007 / 08 / 01)

页次

469 - 484

内容语文

英文

英文摘要

Based on the financial data of firms listed in Taiwan Stock Exchange and EPS forecasts from security companies for the listed firms, we explore the effects of analyst characteristics on the accuracy of earnings forecasts, and then discuss if these effects would generate different outcomes under different market environment, nationality of analysts, and industry attributes. The empirical results show that analyst characteristics proposed are important factors to explain the variations of EPS forecast accuracy. Also, the empirical results can make investors in the market clearer about under which circumstances and factors analysts' earnings forecasts would be more accurate so as to avoid making undesirable investment decisions due to incorrect data of earnings forecasts.

主题分类 社會科學 > 管理學
参考文献
  1. Abdel-Khalik, A. R.,Espejo, J.(1978).Expectations data and the predictive value of interim reporting.Journal of Accounting Research,16(1),1-33.
  2. Barber, B.,Lehavy, R.,McNichols, M.,Trueman, B.(2001).Can investors profit from the prophets? Security analyst recommendations and stock returns.Journal of Finance,56(2),531-563.
  3. Barber, B.,Lehavy, R.,Trueman, B.(2004).Comparing the stock recommendation performance of investment bank and independent research firms.University of California at Davis.
  4. Beaver, W. H.(2002).Perspectives on recent capital market research.The Accounting Review,77(2),453-474.
  5. Bjerring, J. H.,Lakonishok, J.,Vermaelen, T.(1983).Stock prices and financial analysts` recommendations.Journal of Finance,38(1),187-204.
  6. Brown, L. D.,Hagerman, R.,Griffin, P.,Zmijewski, M.(1987).Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings.Journal of Accounting and Economics,9(1),61-88.
  7. Chan, S. Y.,Fong, W. M.(1996).Reactions of the Hong Kong stock market to the publication of second-hand analysts` recommendation information.Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,23(8),1121-1139.
  8. Clement, M. B.,Tse, S. Y.(2005).Financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting.Journal of Finance,60(1),307-341.
  9. Cooper, R. A.,Day, T. E.,Lewis, C. M.(2001).Following the leader: A Study of individual analysts` earnings forecasts.Journal of Financial Economics,61(3),383-416.
  10. Cornell, B.,Landsman, W. R.(1989).Security price response to quarterly earnings announcements and Analysts` forecast revisions.The Accounting Review,64(4),680-692.
  11. Elton, E. J.,Gruber, M. J.,Gultekin, M.(1981).Expectations and share prices.Management Science,27(9),975-987.
  12. Foster, G.(1977).Quarterly accounting data: Time-series properties and predictive-ability results.The Accounting Review,52(1),1-21.
  13. Givoly, D.,Lakonishok, J.(1979).The Information content of financial analysts` forecasts of earnings: Some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency.Journal of Accounting and Economics,1(3),165-185.
  14. Gleason, C. A.,Lee, C. M. C.(2003).Analyst forecast revisions and market price discovery.The Accounting Review,78(1),193-225.
  15. Huth, W. L.,Maris, B. A.(1992).Large and small firm stock price response to heard on the street recommendations.Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance,7,27-47.
  16. Imhoff, E. A.,Lobo, G. J.(1984).Information content of analysts` composite forecast revisions.Journal of Accounting Research,22,541-554.
  17. Kross, W.,Ro, B.,Schroeder, D.(1990).Earnings expectations: The Analysts` information advantage.The Accounting Review,65(2),461-476.
  18. Liu, J. Y.(2004).Tamkang University, Department of Banking and Finance, Non-published Master Thesis.
  19. Liu, S. H.(2001).National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Electronic Business Affairs Graduate Center, Non-published Master Thesis.
  20. Lobo, G. J.(1991).Alternative methods of combining security analysts` and statistical forecasts of annual corporate earnings.International Journal of forecasting,7(1),57-63.
  21. Lu, J. C.(1999).National Chung Cheng University Department of Finance, Non-published Master Thesis.
  22. Lys, T.,Sohn, S.(1990).The Association between revisions of financial analysts` earnings forecasts and security price changes.Journal of Accounting and Economics,13(4),341-363.
  23. Stickel, S. E.(1992).Reputation and performance among security analysts.Journal of Finance,47(5),1811-1836.
  24. Stickel, S. E.(1990).Predicting individual analyst earnings forecasts.Journal of Accounting Research,28(2),409-417.
  25. Su, Y. R.(1996).Soochow University, Graduate School of Accounting, Non-published Master Thesis.
  26. Wang, J. C.(1993).National Taiwan University, Department of Business Administration, Non-published Master Thesis.
  27. Williams, P. A.,Moyes, G. D.,Park, K.(1996).Factors affecting earnings forecast revision for the buy-side and sell-side analyst.Accounting Horizons,10(3),112-121.
  28. Womack, K. L.(1996).Do brokerage analysts` recommendations have investment value?.Journal of Finance,51(1),137-167.
  29. Wu, A. N.(1993).The Study of comparing financial analysts, management bureaucracy and the statistic models on the rate of accuracy.Management Review,12(1),1-48.
  30. Yu, J. S.(2003).National Defense University, Graduate School of Financial Resource Management, Non-published Master Thesis.