名目所得目標區政策的穩定效果：以名目利率作為貨幣政策的操作目標

The Stabilizing Performance of Nominal Income Target Zones: Monetary Policy under the Taylor Rule

10.29735/SJEB.200903.0001

方中柔(Chung-Rou Fang)；陳孟甫(Meng-Fu Chen)

泰勒法則 ； 釘住名目所得 ； 目標區政策 ； 隨機過程 ； Taylor rule ； Nominal income targeting ； Target zone policy ； Stochastic processes

東吳經濟商學學報

64期（2009 / 03 / 01）

1 - 22

繁體中文

現實生活中，泰勒法則已廣泛的被美國、德國等工業化大國所實行，即中央銀行利用名目利率取代傳統的貨幣供給來執行各種干預政策。故本文嘗試在隨機總體模型之架構下，以目標區理論的觀點來探討：釘住名目所得與釘住名目利率，兩種貨幣政策的相對穩定效果。相較於Fang and Lai (2002)的結果，若以名目利率作為貨幣政策的操作目標，則面對不同來源的衝擊，我們發現：總合需求的實質貨幣彈性並非影響釘住名目所得指標之穩定效果的關鍵。我們亦發現：當經濟體系遭受總合供給面的衝擊時，名目所得目標區的實施對於名目所得及物價的波動具有穩定的效果，唯需付出使產出波動加劇之代價。反之，當經濟體系遭受總合需求面的衝擊時，名目所得目標區則具有政策之優越性，不論對於名目所得、產出及物價的波動，均會具有穩定的效果。此一不同的結果或許可作為政府實行目標區政策之參考。

Since the Taylor rule is widely adopted by the U. S., Germany and some other industrialized nations, this means that the central bank conducts nominal interest rate instead conventional money supply as monetary policy. Based on a simple stochastic macro model, this paper addresses the relative stabilizing performance between targeting nominal income and targeting nominal interest rate from the viewpoint of target zones. Contrast to the conclusion found in Fang and Lai (2002), upon the different shocks but stabilizing through Taylor rule, we find that the elasticity of aggregate demand to real money balances is not the factor for the desirability of targeting nominal income. We also find that a nominal income target zone tends to lower price variability at the expense of higher output variability when output supply shock. However, when the economy experiences a output demand shock, a nominal income target zone will actually lower the variability of both domestic prices and output relative to a floating nominal income policy.

1. Aizenman, J.,J. A. Frenkel(1986).Supply Shocks, Wage Indexation and Monetary Accommodation.Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,18,304-322.
2. Aizenman, J.,J. A. Frenkel(1986).Targeting Rules for Monetary Policy.Economics Letters,21,183-187.
3. Asako, K.,H. Wagner(1992).Nominal Income Targeting versus Money Supply Targeting.Scottish Journal of Political Economy,39,169-187.
4. Ball, L.(1997).Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy.NBER Working Paper 5952.
5. Bean, C.(1983).Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal.Economic Journal,93,803-819.
6. Benavie, A.,R. T. Froyen(1983).Combination monetary policies to stabilize price and output under rational expectations.Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,15,189-198.
7. Bradley, M. D.,D. W. Jansen(1989).The Optimality of Nominal Income Targeting WhenWages Are Indexed to Price.Southern Economic Journal,56,13-23.
8. C., Neely,P. Weller,D. Corbae(2003).Endogenous realignments in a target zone.Oxford Economic Paper.
9. Clarida, R.,J. Gali,M. Gertler(1999).The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective.Journal of Economic Literature,27,1661-1707.
10. Clarida, R.,J. Gali,M. Gertler(1998).Monetary Policy Rules in Practice Some International Evidence.European Economic Review,42,1033-1067.
11. Clarida, R.,M. Gertler(1996).Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
12. Dick, J.(1998).Looking Back at Forward-looking Monetary Policy.Journal of Economics and Business,53,509-521.
13. Fang, C. R.,C. C. Lai(2002).Targeting Nominal Income Versus Targeting Price Level: A Target Zone Perspective.International Review of Economics and Finance,11,229-249.
14. Flood, R. P.,P. M. Garber(1991).The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates.Quarterly Journal of Economics,106,1367-1372.
15. Frankel, J.,M. Chinn(1995).The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule.Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,27,318-334.
16. Froot, K. A.,M. Obstfeld(1991).Exchange Rate Dynamics under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach.Journal of International Economics,31,203-229.
17. Guender, A. V.(2002).Optimal and EfficientMonetary Policy Rules in a Forward-LookingModel.Journal of Macroeconomics,24,41-49.
18. Guender, A. V.(2001).Alternative Monetary Policy Rules and Specification of the Phillips Curve: A Comparison of Nominal Income with Strict Inflation Targeting.Kredit and Kapital,4,526-553.
19. Jansen, D. W.,S. G. Kim(1993).Targeting Nominal Income: Further Results.Southern Economic Journal,59,385-393.
20. Kahn, G. A.(1988).Nominal GNP: An Anchor for Monetary Policy?.Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City,73,18-35.
21. Kempa, B.,M. Nelles(1998).On the Variability of Exchange Rate Target Zones in a Mundell-Fleming Model with Stochastic Output Shocks.Journal of Policy Modeling,20,603-619.
22. Kempa, B.,M. Nelles,C. Pierdzioch(1999).Exchange Rate Target Zones and Stock Price Volatility.International Journal of Finance and Economics,4,297-311.
23. Koenig, E. F.(1996).Targeting Nominal Income: A Closer Look.Economics Letters,51,89-93.
24. Krugman, P.(1991).Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics.Quarterly Journal of Economics,106,669-682.
25. McCallum, B. T.(1997).The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting.NBER Working Paper 6291.
26. McCallum, B. T.(1999).Recent Developments in the Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules.Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,81(4),3-11.
27. McCallum, B. T.(1987).The Case for Rules in the Conduct of Monetary Policy.Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,123,415-429.
28. McCallum, B. T.,E. Nelson(1999).Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model.Journal of Monetary Economics,43,553-578.
29. Meade, J. E.(1978).The Meaning of Internal Balance.Economic Journal,88,423-435.
30. Miller, M.,P. Weller(1991).Currency Bands, Target Zones, and Price Flexibility.IMF Staff Papers,38,184-215.
31. Miller, M.,P. Weller(1991).Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia.Economic Journal,101,1380-1399.
32. Miller, R. L.,D. VanHoose(2007).Marcroeconomics: Theories, Policies, and International Applications.New York:South-Western.
33. Poole, W.(1970).Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instrument in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model.Quarterly Journal of Economics,84,197-216.
34. Ratti, R. A.(1997).The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule: A Comment.Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,29,263-269.
35. Sutherland, A.(1995).Monetary and Real Shocks and Optimal Target Zone.European Economic Review,39,161-172.
36. Svensson, L. E. O.(1992).An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones.Journal of Economic Perspectives,6,119-144.
37. Svensson, L. E. O.(1991).Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability.Journal of International Economics,31,27-54.
38. Svensson, L. E. O.(1997).Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets.European Economic Review,46,1111-1146.
39. Taylor, J.(1993).Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice.Camegin-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy
40. Taylor, J.(1995).Goals, Guideline, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers.Boston:Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
41. Tobin, J.(1980).Stabilization Policy Ten Years After.Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
42. Tronzano, H.,Z. Psaradakis,H. Sola(2003).Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals.Economic Modeling,20,79107.
43. Turnovsky, S. J.(1980).Choice of Monetary Instrument under Alternative Forms of Price Expectations.The Manchester School,48,39-62.
44. Turnovsky, S. J.(1975).Optimal Choice of Monetary Instrument in a Linear Economic Model with Stochastic Coefficients.Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,7,51-80.
45. West, K. D.(1986).Targeting Nominal Income: A Note.Economic Journal,96,1077-1083.
46. 賴景昌、王志旭(2004)。名目所得指標與貨幣供給指標的抉擇：文獻的綜合與回顧。國科會專題研究計劃成果報告(NSC-89-2415-H-001-005)。