原油價格水準不同之能源稅課徵效果

Analyzing the Economic Effects of Energy Taxes with Different Oil Price Levels

10.29735/SJEB.201103.0002

黃琝琇(Wen-Hsiu Huang)；林建甫(Chien-Fu Jeff Lin)

能源稅 ； 雙重紅利 ； 油價 ； 總體計量模型 ； Energy Tax ； Double Dividend ； Oil Price ； Macro-econometric Model

東吳經濟商學學報

72期（2011 / 03 / 01）

31 - 80

繁體中文

本文以總體經濟計量年模型，模擬分析當原油價格處於不同水準下，課徵能源稅對台灣經濟的影響差異。模型採用樣本期間為1951年至2008年之年資料，政策模擬分析是假設於2010年實施能源稅條例草案，而油價設定分別為高油價、中油價與低油價水準下，課徵能源稅的衝擊效果。結果顯示，在低油價時課徵能源稅相較高油價時，二氧化碳排放量與能源消費與供給減少較多，顯示節能減碳的效果較好，不過，對國民經濟生產也造成較大的負面衝擊，失業增加較多，所得分配惡化程度較大。此亦表示，高油價不應是能源稅條例草案不宜實施的理由，因為若就能源稅衝擊幅度的觀點而言，低油價時課徵能源稅對經濟所造成的衝擊將反而較大。

This paper analyzes the effects of initiating energy taxes on the Taiwan economy. According to the simulations, it shows that energy taxes effectively reduce CO2 emission and energy consumption, but have negative effects on the macro economy and income distribution. Furthermore, the simulations focus on the energy taxes effects in three different oil price levels, including of high price level, medium price level, and low price level. The negative impacts of energy taxes on the economy can be alleviated when the oil price is high. Initiating energy taxes in low oil price level has advantages of protecting environment and restraining energy consumption, but makes the economy and income distribution worse. Therefore, it seems that the energy taxes can not gain two advantages in both environmental and economic respects no matter what the oil price level is.

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