股市投資人的續擴承諾之探討

An Investigation of Stock Investors' Escalation of Commitment

10.29735/SJEB.201112.0004

張幸惠(Hsin-Hue Chang)

續擴承諾 ； 心理帳戶 ； 避免後悔 ； 過度自信 ； 結構方程模式 ； Escalating Commitment ； Mental Accounting ； Regret Aversion ； Overconfidence ； Structural Equation Model

東吳經濟商學學報

75期（2011 / 12 / 01）

133 - 166

繁體中文

投資人對於虧損的股票不僅持有太久，甚至出現繼續買進、企圖攤平的續擴承諾行為。根據處置效應與續擴承諾等相關理論，本研究提出一個概念性模型以探討心理因素、續擴承諾與投資績效之關係；心理因素包括心理帳戶、避免後悔與過度自信。量化資料來自問卷調查，有效樣本數760，並採用結構方程模式進行參數估計。實證結果顯示心理帳戶與避免後悔顯著地影響續擴承諾，而續擴承諾顯著地降低投資績效，但是持續的投資虧損將緩和續擴承諾。由於續擴承諾負向影響投資績效，金融機構應該推出有助於投資人緩和續擴承諾的金融商品。

Investors not only hold losing stocks too long but also continue buying losing stocks in order to turn the tables around. Referring to the relevant disposition effect studies and escalating commitment literature, this study suggests a conceptual model in which specifies the relationships among psychological factors, escalating commitment, and investment performance. Psychological factors adopted consists of mental accounting, regret avoidance and overconfidence. Quantitative data is obtained by questionnaires, and an effective sample of 760 responses is used to execute the estimation procedure by a structural equation model (SEM) approach. Results reveal that mental accounting and regret avoidance have a statistically significant effect on escalating commitment, respectively. Escalating commitment has a significantly negative effect on investment performance, but the reverse effect is significantly positive. Since the negative effect of escalating commitment on investment performance, financial institu tions are advised to market the products that can help investors mitigate their behavior of escalating commitment.

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