商品市場需求面干擾與最適匯率目標區－物價與匯率雙重預期下之考量

Commodity Market Demand Side Disturbances and the Optimal Exchange Rate Target Zones Band-The Dual Expectations Consideration of Price and Exchange Rate

10.29735/SJEB.201112.0003

廖培賢(Peir-Shyan Liaw)；陳怡螢(Yi-Yin Chen)

最適匯率目標區 ； 蜜月效果 ； 布朗運動 ； 資本移動性 ； the optimal exchange rate band ； honeymoon effect ； Brownian motion ； the normative perspective issue

東吳經濟商學學報

75期（2011 / 12 / 01）

69 - 131

繁體中文

本文以Frenkel及Rodriguez（1982）、Sutherland（1995）與Lai及Chang（2001）的理論架構為基礎，引入開放經濟體系的Lucas總供給函數，並納進民眾對匯率與物價兩個雙預期變數，從而建構一個小型開放經濟體系模型，同時利用Lai、Chang及Fang （2002，2011）「目標區雙預期變數蜜月效果新圖解法」與陳秀華（民93）「最適目標區間新圖解法」技巧，來討論：貨幣當局在極小化社會福利損失的前提下，匯率目標區的區間寬窄應該如何選取的規範性（normative perspective）議題？我們的結論顯示：一旦經濟體系面臨商品市場需求干擾，在資本移動程度相對較大（小）的情況下，若貨幣當局相對較為重視匯率的波動，則應採匯率目標區體制抑或浮動匯率體制（匯率目標區體制抑或固定匯率體制）；反之，若貨幣當局相對較為重視物價的波動，則應採行浮動匯率體制（匯率目標區體制抑或固定匯率體制），這個結論與Sutherland（1995）、陳秀華（民93）等探討最適匯率目標區間既有文獻的結論有很大的不同。

This paper presents a macroeconomic model in an open economy based on the framework developed by Frenkel and Rodriguez (1982), Sutherland (1995) and Lai and Chang (2001). In view of the changes in people's dual expectations regarding price and exchange rate, and the Lucas aggregate supply function under open economy, the model uses the economically intuitive dual expectations graphical approach developed by Lai et al. (2002)(2011) and the optimal exchange rate band graphical approach developed by graphical approach developed by Chen (2004) to discover the normative perspective issue of the choice of the optimal exchange rate band if the monetary authority attempts to minimize the social welfare loss. This paper concludes that if the economic system faces the disturbance derived from commodity demand and the monetary authority cares the fluctuation of exchange rate, the monetary authority must adopt the exchange rate target zone regime or the flexible exchange rate regime (the exchange rate target zone regime or the fixed exchange rate regime) under the capital mobility degree is relatively larger (smaller). On the other side, if the monetary authority cares the fluctuation of price, the monetary authority must adopt the flexible exchange rate regime (the exchange rate target zone regime or the fixed exchange rate regime) under the capital mobility degree is relatively larger (smaller). This finding is found to be different from those proposed by Sutherland (1995) and Chen (2004).

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