總體經濟因素對兩岸匯率變動的影響

The Macroeconomic-factor Effect of the NTD/RMB Fluctuations

10.29735/SJEB.201203.0004

吳靖東(Jing-Tung Wu)

馬可夫狀態轉換模式 ； 實質利率差異模式 ； 匯率 ； 總體經濟因素 ； foreign exchange rate ； macroeconomic-factor ； Markov regime switching model ； real interest differential model

東吳經濟商學學報

76期（2012 / 03 / 01）

99 - 112

繁體中文

隨著兩岸經濟發展與產業合作日趨緊密，新台幣與人民幣的變動也呈現高度相關的現象。本文採用線性的實質利率差異模式（real interest differential model）與非線性的馬可夫狀態轉換模式（Markov regime switching model），來討論總體經濟因素對兩岸匯率變動的影響。研究結果發現實質利率差異模式對近期新台幣/人民幣（NTD/RMB）具有頗佳的解釋能力。馬可夫狀態轉換模式則更進一步分別出經濟的不同狀況，應用實質利率差異模式前須事先辨別外匯市場是處於那一種狀態，避免將其全數套用在兩岸匯率的關係上。在研究總體經濟因素對兩岸匯率變動影響上，馬可夫狀態轉換模式可以提供更豐富的資訊。

The economic development and industries cooperation is more and more closely between Taiwan and Mainland China. The fluctuations of exchange rate, NTD and RMB, are highly correlated. This paper adopts the real interest differential model and Markov regime switching model to study the macroeconomic-factor effect of the NTD/RMB fluctuations. It is found that the real interest differential model has high explanation power of the change of NTD/ RMB. Furthermore, the Markov regime switching model could separate the different situations of the economic. Thus, it is suggested that we should recognize the regime of the foreign exchange market before applies the real interest differential model.

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