應用有利探勘標的法則探討人文因子在地熱探勘中的角色－以蘭陽平原為例

Human Impacts in Play Fairway Analysis for Geothermal Exploration at the Lanyang Plain

10.30069/MM.201912_63(4).04

王祈(C. Wang)；羅偉(W. Lo)；宋聖榮(S. R. Song)

地熱資源 ； 地熱開發 ； 有利探勘標的法則 ； 台灣 ； 蘭陽平原 ； Geothermal Resources ； Geothermal Exploration ； Play Fairway Analysis ； Taiwan ； Lanyang Plain

鑛冶：中國鑛冶工程學會會刊

63卷4期（2019 / 12 / 01）

47 - 55

繁體中文

地熱資源為來自地球內部的熱能，屬於一種對環境友善的可再生能源，可作為24小時不間斷的基載發電，在目前的永續發展與節能減碳等議題上，扮演了取代傳統能源的重要角色。台灣雖位於環太平洋島弧帶，地熱蘊藏豐富，但因地熱探勘初期成本高且不確定性大，尚未積極開發。本研究在蘭陽平原地區採用在美國能源部的地熱開發計畫初期中用來尋找高潛能地熱區的探勘流程，有利探勘標的法則（Play Fairway Analysis），利用現有的與地熱相關的地質資訊來建立重要影響因子，並依據不確定性來決定權重比例，使用定量統計性的方法，製作地熱潛能區域概率分布圖。同時由於台灣地狹人稠，人文因素勢必影響地熱開發，因而選取社會人文領域在人口分布、沉積物深度、易淹水程度三方面的代表性因子來探討其對地熱開發的影響力，最後整合地質與人文兩組趨勢圖得到最佳執行地熱探勘計畫之地區分布，作為在開發初期訂定探勘井位的參考依據。並利用過去數年中地質專家學者們依據相同數據及其他細項資料所決定的探勘井位作為本研究方法的可行性驗證。此由定量機率數值所支持的圖示可以讓主事者及相關投資人士獲得一個具有優先順序的專業客觀評估依據，作為產學接軌的重要橋樑，協助執政當局與人民了解台灣目前地熱潛能的可能分布範圍，作為執行國家與地方地熱開發計畫的參考。

Geothermal energy is the heat resources within the earth. This renewable energy is environmentally friendly and can be used as a 24-hour uninterrupted base-load power generation. It also plays an important role in replacing traditional energy sources for sustainable development, energy conservation and carbon reduction. Taiwan is in the island arc of the Pacific Rim with abundant geothermal resources, however, has limited meaningful geothermal energy exploitation due to high cost and high uncertainty. This study in the Lanyang Plain used the Play Fairway Analysis adopted by the US Department of Energy's geothermal development plan. The existing geological information provided the important factors for the framework of this study. The quantitative statistical method was used to generate the geothermal probability map to assist selecting the appropriate locations for exploration wells. In highly populated Taiwan, human factors are crucial for geothermal development projects. The population density, sediment depth and flooding potentials are important factors affecting the geothermal exploration process. The actual exploration well locations selected by geologic experts in the past few years were referenced by this study. Geology and humanity aspects were put together to setup a composite map revealing the best areas for the geothermal exploration projects in the region. Results of this study allowed the decision-makers and relevant investors to obtain an easy-to-read prioritized professional assessment information and assisted the ruling authorities and the people in understanding the geothermal potential map of Taiwan.

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