颱洪災害之整合性脆弱度評估－大甲溪流域之應用

An Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Typhoon and Flood Hazard in the Ta-Chia River Basin

10.6161/jgs.2012.65.04

洪鴻智(Hung-Chih Hung)；陳令韡(Ling-Yeh Chen)

脆弱度 ； 調適力 ； 多準則決策分析 ； 空間統計 ； 大甲溪流域 ； vulnerability ； adaptive capacity ； multicriteria decision making Analysis ； spatial statistics ； Ta-Chia River Basin

地理學報

65期（2012 / 06 / 01）

79 - 96

繁體中文

由於全球環境變遷及災害敏感地區過度開發，造成更多地區暴露在颱風與洪水（颱洪）災害及極端天氣的威脅。故災害風險管理者，迫切需要釐清特別脆弱地區與其主要構成要素。尤其是如何納入跨部門、跨領域，及允許不同利害相關者共同參與脆弱度評估，提升脆弱度評估支援管理決策能力，是進行脆弱度評估之重大挑戰。本文整合多準則決策分析（MCDA）與空間統計分析，以大甲溪流域為例，進行颱洪災害整合性脆弱度評估。評估結果發現，大甲溪流域中、上游之山坡地與下游部分地區，為高脆弱地區與災害管理之「熱區」且高脆弱地區具有空間聚集性。造成高脆弱地區與其他地區差異之主要因素，為災害暴露條件、實質環境、土地使用、二三級產業發展，及居民災害調適與回應能力。

Global environmental change and overdevelopment in hazard-prone areas cause the increase of areas exposure to the threats from typhoon, flood hazards and extreme weather conditions. A need for disaster risk management is to identify the particularly vulnerable areas and the key factors that shape vulnerability. However, an important challenge is how the vulnerability assessments are able to integrate multi-sector, multi-field factors with various stakeholders' participation in the processes of assessment. This paper proposes a methodology to the assessments of vulnerability by using a novel tool of integrating multicriteria decision making analysis (MCDA) with spatial statistical analysis. To illustrate our proposed methodology, a case study is presented by the typhoon-flood vulnerability assessments in the Ta-Chia River Basin. Results showed that vulnerable areas were in fact spatially clustered along the river basin. In addition, exposure, biophysical sensitivity, land uses and adaptive capacity contributed to the formation of localized ”hot spots” of similarly and particularly vulnerable areas. Finally, we discussed how the findings provided direction for more effective approaches to river basin planning and management.

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