考量空間關聯之地區洪災脆弱性研究以雲林縣易淹水地區為例

Local Vulnerability under the Effect of Spatial Association A Case Study in Flood-prone Areas of Yunlin

10.6161/jgs.2015.79.01

張學聖(Hsueh-Sheng Chang)；劉佩佳(Pei-Chia Liu)

地區脆弱性 ； 空間關聯性 ； 地理加權的主成份分析法 ； local vulnerability ； spatial association ； Geographically Weighted Principal Components Analysis (GWPCA)

地理學報

79期（2015 / 12 / 01）

1 - 29

繁體中文

脆弱性是氣候變遷研究與政策的核心概念，在環境變遷研究中自然災害的發生不必然會導致受災的結果，只有當地區(或人)對災害具有暴露或敏感的條件並缺乏調適能力，才會具有脆弱性的特質。脆弱性具有明確的「地理空間」與「社會空間」的特性，將脆弱的空間特性納入地區災害管理，並進行地區間脆弱程度與影響因素的比較有其必要性。「整合性的指標評估」能將脆弱性的多元概念與現實事件加以鏈結，惟過去研究奠基於「地區間影響因素及指標重要性一致」的假設，分析結果往往忽略了地區間可能具有空間關聯性及災害承載能力本質上的差異，使得分析結果是具有疑義的。本文以雲林縣易淹水13個鄉鎮為驗證地區，並利用「主成份分析法」整合指標，擷取出「地區發展強度」與「災害敏感地區」兩個潛在衝擊綜合指標及「都市化與醫療資源」、「短期緊急應變能力」與「長期照護能力」三個調適能力綜合指標。進而藉由空間分析方法，得到「高潛在衝擊地區」與「低調適能力地區」，有利於提供地區決策者判斷對於洪災潛在的危險程度與資源分配；最後利用「地理加權的主成份分析法」，同時考量「屬性」與「區位」下，得到熱區與冷區的重要影響指標，作為地區提升應災能力政策研擬的參考。

Vulnerability is a key component of research and policy of global climate change. An area is vulnerable only when it has been exposed to disasters. Therefore, vulnerability is measured in terms of two major factors, namely geographic and social. Many recent studies apply ＂aggregated indices＂ to connect multiple factors to real events, and further compare the differences and intensity across regions. Nevertheless, not only does the integration and weighted rationality challenge current research, but the disregard of spatial correlation and disaster capacity might result in inaccurate explanations for local vulnerabilities. Hence, this study applies Principle Component Analysis to flood-prone areas of Yunlin. The factors identified according to previous studies are then classified into potential integrated indicators (local development intensity and disaster sensitive areas) and adaptive integrated indicators (urbanization and medical resources, short-term emergency response capabilities and long-term care capacity). The Spatial Statistical Analysis is then adopted to investigate the hot-spots and cold-spots of local vulnerability. Finally, the Geographically Weighted Principal Components Analysis is used to determine the specific key impact indices of each area. The ultimate outcome of the analysis can be referred to local disaster prevention and management.

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