從清朝文獻紀錄重建颱風序列與時空特徵

Reconstructing Historical Typhoon Series and Spatiotemporal Attributes from REACHES Documentary Records of Qing Dynasty

10.6161/jgs.201908_(93).0003

林冠慧(Kuan-Hui Lin)；許景慈(Ching-Tzu Hsu)；王寳貫(Pao-Kuan Wang)；許世旻(Shih-Ming Hsu)；林淯暄(Yu-Shiuan Lin)；汪志偉(Chih-Wei Wan)；曾琬鈴(Wan-Ling Tseng)；吳宛真(Wan-Chen Wu)；潘威(Wei Pan)

歷史颱風 ； 考古氣候學 ； 清朝 ； 文獻紀錄 ； Historical typhoon ； paleoclimatology ； Qing dynasty ； documentary records

地理學報

93期（2019 / 08 / 01）

81 - 107

繁體中文

颱（颶）風是地球主要的自然災害之一，全球不僅有超過3成以上的人口暴露在潛在的颱風災害中，氣候暖化極可能增強颱風的強度，也增加其不確定性。建立長時間序列的颱風資料庫，以了解颱風不同時間尺度的振盪與空間特性，為當代氣候變遷研究的重要課題。為延伸西北太平洋近百年的颱風器測資料，本研究利用最新建置的REACHES東亞氣候數位資料庫，透過標準化的編碼系統，及明確的颱（颶）風定義與文本分析法，擷取清朝歷史文獻中有關颱風的紀錄，並經由每筆記錄的時空鄰近性進行關連性分析，以重建1644-1911年中國沿岸的颱風序列。REACHES颱風序列和其他論文時間與區域相近的颱風序列，具有非常好的相關性（華南相關係數R=0.847，華東R=0.616），顯示重建結果應具良好的可信度。本研究重建的颱風序列清楚呈現（1）1644-1911年間，中國沿岸颱風具有顯著的百年際變化特徵，17及19世紀颱風振盪幅度大，18世紀振盪幅度較小，1650-1680年間是颱風密度最高的時期，華南沿岸又比華東沿岸更加密集。（2）頻譜分析顯示這268年間颱風有顯著的年際、年代際與多年代際的回歸週期，且（3）在一致的百年變化趨勢上，華南跟華東颱風的（多）年代際與年際波動具有顯著的反相位特徵，或同向位時間差效果。即使在1650-1680年間，兩區域的高峰波段仍具時間差，高頻月份亦不同。本研究後續申述可能影響這段時間颱風特性的大氣海洋環境與驅動因素，並深入討論本研究的限制與後續研究方向。

Typhoons (hurricanes) are one of the major natural hazards on the Earth, and can affect more than 30% of the world population. Global warming can worsen the hazard risk by not only strengthening typhoon intensity, but also increasing their unpredictability. Constructing reliable historical typhoon data for a sufficiently long time period is thus critical to reinforcing our understanding on the typhoon behaviors especially over different temporal and spatial scales. To extend the western North Pacific historical typhoon data length, this study reconstructs a typhoon series during 1644 and 1911 from the REACHES database, which has digitized a wealth of historical weather records quoted in a Compendium of Chinese Meteorological Records of the Last 3,000 Years. By applying a systematic approach, this study uses definite typhoon (hurricane) vocabularies to first filter the records through using REACHES code system to extract records, and then to perform text analysis to interpret the records, and finally applies spatial (±2° longitude and latitude) and temporal (±1 day of the typhoon occurrence) adjacency criteria to combine related records into a single typhoon event to avoid repeated counting and to gain more accurate typhoon frequencies for building the series. Research results demonstrate good consistency between the REACHES reconstructed typhoon series and other series obtained from independent data sets (R=0.847 for South Coast, and R=0.616 for East Coast) (South Coast is defined as equivalent to Long. 105-117°, Lat. 18-24.5°, and East Coast to Long. 115-122°, Lat. 24.5-36.5°). The following inferences can be drawn from the REACHES reconstructed typhoon series. (1) Typhoon activities in the East and South Coasts of China show clear centennial variations: the 17^(th) and 19^(th) centuries had obviously larger fluctuations than the 18^(th) century. The most typhoon active period was 1650-1680, and the intensity in South Coast was more relevant than in the East Coast. (2) Spectral analysis reveals interannual, decadal and multi-decadal typhoon cyclicities during the 268 years. The series indicates coherence out of phase or in phase, with a significant time-lag effect between the East and South Coasts over the centennial variabilities. Monthly analysis also shows discrepancies in typhoon activities between the Coasts. Research findings provide novel material to further study linkages between the spatiotemporal patterns of the typhoon activities and climate forces. Limitations on the methods are also carefully elucidated.

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