都會颱洪災害韌性變遷及其與脆弱度、調適力之連結

Changes in Metropolitan Typhoon-Flood Hazard Resilience and Its Links with Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity

10.6161/jgs.202108_(99).0003

洪鴻智(Hung-Chih Hung)；徐牧謙(Mu-Chien Hsu)；洪至萱(Chih-Hsuan Hung)

韌性 ； 脆弱度 ； 調適力 ； 颱洪災害風險 ； 都會發展 ； Resilience ； Vulnerability ； Adaptive capacity ； Typhoon-flood risk ； Metropolitan development

地理學報

99期（2021 / 08 / 01）

59 - 81

繁體中文

隨著人口聚集、都市快速擴張與災害敏感地的開發，都會區面臨氣候變遷與災害的威脅日增。故如何透過災害調適力提升，以改善韌性與脆弱度，成為重要研究議題。本文主要目的乃應用社會生態系統（social-ecological system）架構，整合多準則評估分析（multicriteria evaluation analysis）、地理資訊系統導向之空間統計、災害韌性與脆弱度變遷模型，建構整合性韌性評估架構。然後，應用此架構評估臺北都會區氣候變遷相關之颱洪災害韌性特質及其變遷，與進一步檢視調適力與韌性、脆弱度變遷之關係，以助於釐清都會調適與發展策略對於韌性與脆弱度之影響。韌性評估結果發現，低韌性地區主要分布在都會東、北部外圍與老舊市中心區；近年這些地區韌性條件持續惡化，空間聚集現象亦愈來愈顯著。迴歸分析結果顯示，都市發展與整體開發密切相關之公有土地、公共設施與交通路網開發，不利於脆弱度與韌性之改善。本研究之發現可提供決策者擬定合適之都會治理與城鄉規劃策略，以助於降低災害風險與建構韌性城市。

Metropolitan areas face a growing threat from climate-related hazards in parallel with a high agglomeration of population, economic activities and inappropriate development encroaching onto hazard-prone areas. Therefore, building resilience is critical for strengthening the capacity to reduce disaster risks. Based on a social-ecological system framework, this study proposes a novel methodology that incorporates a GIS-based multicriteria evaluation analysis, spatial statistics and a model of disaster resilience and vulnerability change to assess Taipei metropolis's typhoon-flood hazard resilience and its changes over time, as well as to examine the relationships between adaptive capacity and vulnerability and resilience changes. Research findings of resilience assessment show that the areas with low resilience are mainly distributed in the eastern, northern and historical downtown portions of the metropolis. The resilience conditions continue to deteriorate and become increasingly spatially concentrated. Results of regression analysis indicate that the development of public land, public infrastructures and transportation networks are significantly linked to urban growth and mass development, which increases vulnerability and impedes resilience improvement. These results provide decision-makers with sufficient metropolitan governance structures for designing appropriate planning measures to reduce disaster risks.

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