桃園市暴雨水減災的假設市場價格及其空間迴歸分析

Contingent Valuation and Spatial Regression Model of Stormwater Disaster Reduction for Taoyuan City

10.6161/jgs.202112_(100).0003

胡志平(Chich-Ping Hu)

暴雨水 ； 減災 ； 不透水表面 ； 空間迴歸模型 ； Stormwater ； disaster reduction ； impervious surfaces ； spatial regression model

地理學報

100期（2021 / 12 / 01）

39 - 69

繁體中文

減少不透水表面，是政府解決水患最優先要提出的政策。不透水表面的減少而降低淹水災害的風險，所帶來的社會效益，不只改善地區的福祉，更會擴散影響到相鄰地區。減災空間效益的間接效應，可以透過居民問卷詢價得到需求函數，進一步分析求得。本文以桃園市為研究對象，設計雙界二分評價問卷，並且利用受訪者回答都市暴雨水減災的願付價格的資料，建立減災願付價格函數。願付價格是透過問卷調查的資料，利用區間迴歸法建立暴雨水減災函數，估計解釋變數的邊際效應及預測減災效益，再利用空間迴歸模型，分析減災的空間外部效應。研究結果如後說明，1.居民屬性：年齡、教育程度、所得與環境財特質，會影響暴雨水災風險降低的願付價值。少部分居民，無論如何都不願意支付費用，最主要的原因是缺乏足夠風險訊息與認知，而且不相信政府能有效地達成風險降低的目標。2.桃園市暴雨水減災的總效益，在最大概似估計法計算後，最高為中壢區的6.93億元，其次為桃園區的6.01億元，龜山區、蘆竹區、楊梅區、龍潭區的願付價值分別是2.48億元、2.55億元、2.72億元、2.81億元，其他分區則分布在930萬元至0.97億元。3.暴雨水減災願付價格Moran's I等於-0.277，顯示暴雨水管理的社會福祉的空間特質，具有分散的效應。集中配置資源，才會形成聚集經濟的效果。分散的社會福祉效應，代表空間聚集經濟效應相對缺乏。4.空間迴歸模型操作結果顯示，暴雨水減災存在空間外部性，坡度、高度、耕地面積等地區的脆弱性愈高，減災效益愈高。相鄰分區的管理規費效益、海拔高度、耕地面積、平均收入，會負面的外溢至各分區，而且外溢數量愈多，暴雨水降低的效益減少愈多。

Reducing impervious surfaces is the Taoyuan City government's highest priority in addressing floods. Reduction of impervious surfaces can reduce the risk of flooding disasters, and the resulting social benefits not only improve the well-being of the district, but also affect the adjacent areas. The indirect influence of disaster reduction can be achieved through the resident’s questionnaire inquiry and further analysis. This study designs a doubled-bound dichotomous choice questionnaire to ask residents of Taoyuan City, Taiwan about their willingness to pay for urban stormwater disaster reduction, and establishes the disaster reduction demand function from the survey results. Based on the questionnaire survey data, interval regression analysis is performed to estimate the marginal effect of stormwater disaster reduction and forecast the disaster reduction benefit, and then the spatial regression model is employed to analyze the spatial effect of disaster reduction. The following conclusions are drawn from the analytical results. 1) A resident's attributes including age, education level, income and environmental features affect the willingness to pay for the risk reduction from stormwater flooding. A small number of residents are unwilling to pay fees anyway for the reason of lack of sufficient risk information and awareness, and they do not believe that the government can effectively achieve the goal of risk reduction. 2) The total benefit of stormwater disaster reduction in Taoyuan City, based on maximum likelihood estimation, is NT$693,000,000 in Zhongli District, followed by NT$601,000,000 in Taoyuan District, Guishan District, Luzhu District, Yangmei District and Longtan District are willing to pay NT$248,000,000, NT$255,000,000, NT$72,000,000 million dollars and NT$281,000,000 respectively, while other districts range between NT$9,300,000 and NT$97,000,000. 3. The Moran's I of willingness to pay for stormwater disaster reduction is equal to -0.277, which illustrates the spatial characteristics of distribution for the social well-being of stormwater management with decentralized effect. Centralized allocation of resources accumulates the effect of an agglomeration economy. The decentralized social welfare effect represents the relative lack of spatial agglomeration economic effect. 4) The results of the spatial regression model show that the process of stormwater disaster reduction has spatial externalities. A higher vulnerability caused by slope, height, and cultivated land area is implies a greater potential benefit from disaster reduction. The benefits of management fees, altitude, arable land area and average income from neighboring districts spill over negatively to each district, and more spillovers mean increased benefit of storm water reduction.

1. 吳珮瑛, P. Y.,鄧福麟, F. L.(2003)。黑面琵鷺保護區生態旅遊規劃方案下居民參與和願付價值關係之檢討。戶外遊憩研究，16(4)，41-70。
   連結：
2. 詹滿色, M. S.,傅祖壇, Z. T.(2007)。臺灣漁產品HACCP安全認證的價值評估一雙界二分假設市場評估法之應用。農業經濟叢刊，13(2)，168-188。
   連結：
3. 蕭代基, D. J.,錢玉蘭, Y. L.,蔡麗雪, L. X.(1998)。淡水河系水質與景觀改善效益之評估。經濟研究，35(1)，29-59。
   連結：
4. Ando, A. W.,Cadavid, C. L.,Netusil, N. R.,Parthum, B.(2020).Willingness-to-volunteer and stability of preferences between cities: Estimating the benefits of stormwater management.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,99,102274.
5. Arnold, C. L., Jr.,Gibbons, C. J.(1996).Impervious surface coverage: The emergence of a key environmental indicator.Journal of the American Planning Association,62(2),243-258.
6. Arrow, K., R. Solow, E. Leamer, P. Portney, R. Randner, and H. Schuman. 1993. Report of the NOAA panel on contingent valuation. Federal Register 58 (10): 4610-4.
7. Bettencourt, L.,West, G.(2010).A unified theory of urban living.Nature,467(7318),912-913.
8. Bishop, R.,Heberlein, T.(1979).Measuring values of extra- market goods: Are indirect measures biased?.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,61(5),926-930.
9. Bonnieux, F.,Goffe, P. L.(1997).Valuing the benefits of landscape restoration: A case study of the Cotentin in Lower-Normandy, France.Journal of Environmental Management,50(3),321-333.
10. Brezonik, P. L.,Stadelmann, T. H.(2002).Analysis and predictive models of stormwater runoff volumes, loads, and pollutant concentrations from watersheds in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, Minnesota, USA.Water Research,36(7),1743-1757.
11. Burns, D.,Vitvar, T.,McDonnell, J.,Hassett, J.,Duncan, J.,Kendall, C.(2005).Effects of suburban development on runoff generation in the Croton River basin, New York, USA.Journal of Hydrology,311(1-4),266-281.
12. Cameron, T. A.(1988).A new paradigm for valuing nonmarket goods using referendum data: Maximum likelihood estimation by censored Logistic regression.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,15(3),355-379.
13. Carruthers, J. I.,Ulfarsson, G. F.(2003).Urban sprawl and the cost of public services.Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design,30(4),503-522.
14. Carson, R. T.,Czajkowski, M.(2019).A new baseline model for estimating willingness to pay from discrete choice models.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,95(C),57-61.
15. Champ, P. A.,Bishop, R. C.,Brown, T. C.,McCollum, D. W.(1997).Using donation mechanisms to value nonuse benefits from public goods.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,33(2),151-162.
16. Chien, Y.,Huang, C.,Shaw, D.(2005).A general model of starting point bias in double- bounded dichotomous contingent valuation surveys.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,50(2),362-377.
17. Choi, P.- S.,Espinola-Arredondo, A.,Munoz-Garcia, F.(2018).Conservation procurement auctions with bidirectional externalities.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,92(C),559-579.
18. Davis, R. K.(1963).Recreation planning as an economic problem.Natural Resource Journal,3(2),239-249.
19. Desvousges, W.,Gable, A.,Dunworth, R.,Hudson, S.(1993).Contingent valuation: The wrong tool to measure passive use losses.Choices: The Magazine of Food Resource Issues,8(2),9-11.
20. Diamond, P.(1996).Testing the internal consistency of Contingent Valuation Surveys.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,30(3),337-347.
21. Diamond, P.,Hausman, J.(1993).On contingent valuation measurement of nonuse valuation.Contingent valuation: A critical assessment,Amsterdam:
22. Diamond, P.,Hausman, J.,Loonard, G.,Denning, M.(1993).Does contingent valuation measure preference? Experimental evidence.Contingent Valuation: A Critical Assessment,Amsterdam:
23. Diederich, J.,Goeschl, T.(2018).Voluntary action for climate change mitigation does not exhibit locational preferences.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,90(C),175-180.
24. Ewing, R.(1997).Is Los Angeles style sprawl desirable?.Journal of the American Planning Association,63(1),107-126.
25. Feng, Z.,Chen, W.(2018).Environmental regulation, green innovation, and industrial green development: An empirical analysis based on the Spatial Durbin Model.Sustainability,10,223.
26. Fix, P.,Loomis, J.(1998).Comparing the economic value of mountain biking estimated using revealed and stated preference.Journal of Environmental Planning and Management,41(2),227-236.
27. Glaeser, E. L.,Ward, B. A.(2009).The causes and consequences of land use regulation: Evidence from Greater Boston.Journal of Urban Economics,65(3),265-278.
28. Goonetilleke, A.,Thomas, E.,Ginn, S.,Gilbert, D.(2005).Understanding the role of land use in urban stormwater quality management.Journal of Environmental Management,74(1),31-42.
29. Gordon, P.,Richardson, H. W.(1997).Are compact cities a desirable planning goal?.Journal of the American Planning Association,63(1),95-105.
30. Hanemann, W. M.,Loomis, J.,Kanninen, B.(1991).Statistical efficiency of double-bounded dichotomous choice Contingent valuation.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,73(1),1255-1263.
31. Hanley, N.,Wright, R. E.,Adamowicz, V.(1998).Using choice experiments to value the environment.Environmental and Resource Economics,11(3-4),413-428.
32. Harrison, G.(1992).Valuing public goods with the contingent valuation method: A critique of kahneman and knetsch.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,23(3),248-257.
33. Hawbaker, T. J.,Radeloff, V. C.,Clayton, M. K.,Hammer, R. B.,Gonzales-Abraham, C. E.(2006).Road development, housing growth, and landscape fragmentation in northern Wisconsin: 1937-1999.Ecological Application,16(3),1222-1237.
34. Hills, J.(ed.),Stewart, K.(ed.)(2005).A more equal society: New labour, poverty, inequality and exclusion.Bristol:Policy Press.
35. Hoehn, J. R.,Randall, A.(1987).A satisfactory benefit cost indicator from contingent valuation.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,14(3),226-247.
36. Johnson, M. P.(2001).Environmental impacts of urban sprawl: A survey of the literature and proposed research agenda.Environment and Planning A,33(4),717-735.
37. Jones, J. E.,Earles, T. A.,Fassman, E. A.,Herricks, E. E.,Urbonas, B.,Clary, J. K.(2005).Urban storm-water regulations- Are impervious area limits a good idea.Journal of Environmental Engineering- ASCE,131(2),176-179.
38. Kahneman, D.,Knetsch, J. L.(1992).Valuing public goods: The purchase of moral satisfaction.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,22(1),57-70.
39. Kahneman, D.,Knetsch, J. L.(1992).Contingent valuation and the value of public goods: Reply.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,22(1),90-94.
40. Kube, R.,Loschel, A.,Mertens, H.,Requate, T.(2018).Research trends in environmental and resource economics: Insights from four decades of JEEM.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,92(C),433-464.
41. Larson, D. M.,Pienaar, E. F.,Jarvis, L. S.(2016).Wildlife conservation, labor supply and time values in rural Botswana.Environment and Development Economics,21(2),135-157.
42. Lesage, J. P.,Dominguez, M.(2012).The importance of modeling spatial spillovers in public choice analysis.Public Choice,150(3),525-545.
43. Li, M.-H.,Barrett, M. E.,Rammonhan, P.,Olivera, F.,Landphair, H. C.(2008).Documenting stormwater quality on Texas highways and adjacent vegetated roadsides.Journal of Environmental Engineering – ASCE,134(1),48-59.
44. Lloyd-Smith, P.,Adamowicz, W.(2018).Can stated measures of willingness-to-accept be valid? Evidence from laboratory experiments.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,91(C),133-149.
45. Lockwood, M.,Loomis, J.,DeLacy, T.(1993).A contingent valuation survey and benefit-cost analysis of forest preservation in East Gippsland, Australia.Journal of Environmental Management,38(3),233-243.
46. Markandya, A.,Harou, P.,Bellu, L. G.,Cistulli, V.(2002).Environmental economics for sustainable growth.Cheltenham:Edward Elgar.
47. Mentens, J.,Raes, D.,Hermy, M.(2006).Green roofs as a tool for solving the rainwater runoff problem in the urbanized 21st century?.Landscape and Urban Planning,77(3),217-226.
48. Mitchell, R. C.,Carson, R. T.(1989).Using surveys to value public goods: The contingent valuation method.Washington, DC:Resources for the Future.
49. Moglen, G. E.,Kim, S.(2007).Limiting imperviousness: Are threshold-based policies a good idea?.Journal of the American Planning Association,73(2),161-171.
50. New York State Department of Department of Environmental Conservation(2015).New York State Stormwater Management Design Manual.NY Albany:
51. Nickerson, C.(1993).Valuing public goods: A comment on Harrison’s critique of Kahneman and Knetsch.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,25(2),93-102.
52. Nickerson, C.(1995).Does willingness to pay reflect the purchase of moral satisfaction? A reconsideration of Kahneman and Knetsch.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,28(1),126-133.
53. Parikh, P.,Taylor, M. A.,Hoagland, T.,Thurston, H.,Shuster, W.(2005).Application of market mechanism and incentives to reduce stormwater runoff: An integrated hydrologic, economic and legal approach.Environmental Science and Policy,8,133-144.
54. Randall, A.,Hoehn, J. P.(1996).Embedding in market demand systems.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,30(3),369-380.
55. Rose, S.,Peters, N. E.(2001).Effects of urbanization on streamflow in the Atlanta area (Georgia, USA): A comparative hydrological approach.Hydrological Processes,15(8),1441-1457.
56. Smith, V. K.(1992).Arbitrary values, good causes, and premature verdicts.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,22(1),71-89.
57. Stevens, J. D.,Bonfil, R.,Dulvy, N. K.,Walker, P. A.(2000).The effects of fishing on sharks, rays, and chimaeras (chondrichthyans), and the implications for marine ecosystems.ICES Journal of Marine Science,57(3),476-494.
58. Sung, C. Y.(2012).Evaluating the efficacy of a local tree protection policy using LiDAR remote sensing data.Landscape and Urban Planning,104(1),19-25.
59. Sung, C. Y.,Li, M.-H.,Rogers, G. O.,Volder, A.,Wang, Z.(2011).Investigating alien plant invasion in urban riparian forests in a hot and semi-arid region.Landscape and Urban Planning,100(3),278-286.
60. Sutherland, A. B.,Meyer, J. L.,Gardiner, E. P.(2002).Effects of land cover on sediment regime and fish assemblage structure in four southern Appalachian streams.Freshwater Biology,47(9),1791-1805.
61. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Sustainable Communities(2006).,Washington DC.:EPA.
62. Villarreal, E. L.,Semadeni-Davies, A.,Bengtsson, L.(2004).Inner city stormwater control using a combination of best management practices.Ecological Engineering,22(4-5),279-298.
63. White, P. C. L.,Lovett, J. C.(1999).Public preferences and willingness to pay for nature conservation in the North York Moors National Park, UK.Journal of Environmental Management,55(1),1-13.
64. Whitehead, J. C.,Blomquist, G. C.,Hoban, T. J.,Clifford, W. B.(1995).Assessing the validity and reliability of contingent values: A comparison of on-site users, off-site users, and non-users.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,29(2),238-251.
65. Whitford, V.,Ennos, A. R.,Handley, J. F.(2001).City form and natural process’ indicators for the ecological performance of urban areas and their application to Merseyside, U. K..Landscape and Urban Planning,57(2),91-103.
66. Wu, S.-T.,Hsu, F.-S.(1989).A estimation of recreational benefit from water quality improvement: The case of River Tanshui.Sino-US Binational Conference on Environmental Protection and Social Development,Taipei, Taiwan:
67. 台灣經濟研究院=Taiwan Institute of Economic Research(1990)。,臺北=Taipei:台灣經濟研究院=Taiwan Institute of Economic Research。
68. 桃園市政府=Taoyuan City Government(2021)。桃園市政府 [Taoyuan City Government] 2021 。桃園市水災危險潛勢地區保全計畫 [Tao yuan shi shui zai wei xian qian shi di qu bao quan ji hua] 。桃園市 [Taoyuan City]：桃園市政府[Taoyuan City Government]。
69. 國家發展委員會=National Development Council(2017).都市及區域發展彙編.臺北=Taipei:國家發展委員會=National Development Council.
70. 黃宗煌, Z. H.(1991)。如何降低污染防治成本一條件評估法（二）。環保與經濟，21，64-67。
71. 劉錦添, J. T.(1990)。淡水河水質改善的經濟效益評估－封閉式假設市場評價法之應用。經濟論文，18(2)，99-128。