Causality between Business Travel and Trade Volume

商務旅行與貿易量的因果關係

張書濂(Shu-Lien Chang)；姚名麗(Min-Li Yao)；李昀寰(Yun-Huan Lee)

Business Travelers ； Trade Volumes ； Cointegration ； Granger Causality ； 商務旅行 ； 貿易量 ； 共整合分析 ； Granger因果關係

中國統計學報

60卷1期（2022 / 03 / 01）

1 - 35

英文

This study employs Taiwan data to examine the cointegration and causal relationships between business travel and trade volume. Analysis is performed with respect to Asian countries (i.e., Japan, Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand), to North American countries (i.e., Canada and the United States), to United Kingdom, and to Australia from 2001Q1-2020Q4. This study finds evidence of a long-term equilibrium relationship (cointegration) between Taiwan and Japan, and between Taiwan and the United States. In addition, there is no bidirectional causality between business travel and trade volume in the study; however, in the cases of Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom, the results indicate an unidirectional (one-way Granger causality) causal effect running from trade volume to business travel. The concept of a linkage between business travel and trade volume is demonstrated in this study. Significantly, this study is expected to benefit policymakers by enabling better strategic planning to integrate the resources and strengths of the public and private sectors to forge a new mutually beneficial model of cooperation and a sense of economic community in these trading countries.

本研究以共整合分析與Granger因果關係檢定探討商務旅行與貿易量之因果關係。研究樣本取自2001年到2020年臺灣分別與日本、韓國、新加坡、印尼、泰國、加拿大、美國、英國與澳洲等九個國家之間商務旅行與貿易量。實證結果顯示臺灣與日本、臺灣與美國之間存在長期均衡關係。此外，臺灣分別對上述九個貿易國家之商務旅行與貿易量並不存在雙邊因果效應；僅臺灣分別對加拿大、美國和英國存在著貿易量對商務旅行之單向因果效應。本研究主要連結商務旅行與貿易量之間聯繫的概念。值得注意的是，本研究之結果期望可以提供給政策擬定者在制訂與相關貿易國之貿易政策時，可以有效的整合資源，與公、私部門之優勢以產生雙邊互惠之模式。

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