因果推論在經濟學門的理論發展與應用

Causal Inference in Economics: Theoretical Development and Applications

賴宗志(Tsung-Chih Lai)

處理效應 ； 迴歸調整 ； 工具變數 ； 差異中差異 ； 合成控制法 ； treatment effect ； regression adjustment ； instrumental variable ； difference-in-differences ； synthetic control method

中國統計學報

62卷3期（2024 / 09 / 01）

197 - 221

繁體中文;英文

方案評估（program evaluation）一向是經濟實證研究的重要議題，而循證決策（evidence-based policy making）更是近年國際公共政策的主流趨勢。在過去30多年間，計量經濟學家發展出許多不僅能回答相關性問題，還能提供因果證據的研究方法。而這一系列「因果革命」更使三位長期探索因果關係的學者榮獲2021年諾貝爾經濟學獎。因此，我們希望藉由本文介紹因果推論在經濟學門的理論發展，並以諾貝爾獎得主等人的經典實證研究作為應用範例。

Program evaluation has occupied a pivotal role in empirical economics, and evidence-based policy making has ascended to a prevailing norm in public policy worldwide. Over the past 30 years, econometricians have developed methods capable of elucidating not only correlations but also causality. This "causal revolution" has led to three distinguished scholars being awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2021 for their seminal contributions to understanding causal relationships. This article aims to introduce the theoretical development of causal inference in economics and use the canonical empirical applications of Nobel laureates and others as illustrative examples.