現任縣市長支持之研究：多層次貝氏統計之應用

Incumbent Support: Data Analysis Using Bayesian Multilevel Models

10.3966/054696002014120096003

蔡佳泓(Chia-Hung Tsai)

市長選舉 ； 施政表現 ； 投票行為 ； 多層次貝氏統計模型 ； Mayor Election ； Government Performance ； Voting Behavior ； Bayesian Multilevel Model

應用經濟論叢

96期（2014 / 12 / 01）

69 - 104

繁體中文

過去對於政策與投票的研究偏重個別縣市的影響因素，並未考慮縣市之間的差異，推論範圍有限。我們利用台灣選舉與民主化（TEDS 2010C）的調查資料，合併來自台北市、台中縣、台中市、高雄縣、高雄市等五個縣市的受訪者，而且運用五都改制前的決算資料，以多層次貝氏統計模型估計縣市之間的差異以及個人的政策滿意度影響現任者支持的程度。結果發現在考慮政黨認同之後，社福、交通、環保等三項政策的施政滿意度顯著地影響投票行為，而且縣市之間的確存在差異，但是這三項政策的預算並未影響縣市之間的差異。我們也比較多層次模型的估計結果與勝算對數迴歸模型以確認結果的可信度。

Democratic governments should seek for the best interest for citizens. In theory, incumbents should persuade voters to support them again with their performance, including budget distribution. It is important to evaluate the extent to which voters respond to government performance and re-elect the incumbents. This paper uses data from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS 2010C) and set up five clusters of respondents according to their residence in five counties or cities. Utilizing multi-level Bayesian analysis, I combine aggregate-level budget data of social welfare, transportation, and environmental protection, and corresponding survey data to test the hypothesis of individual and geographical influence on voting behavior. The results show that individual's policy evaluation significantly influences voting behavior, while partisanship is taken into account. But government spending seems to have no impact on the probability of supporting the incumbents. A validation check of the estimates is provided.

1. 王肇蘭、許義忠、徐偉初(2008)。台灣地區地方政府效率暨生產力之評估。應用經濟論叢，84，71-120。
   連結：
2. 林瓊珠(2008)。議題、候選人評價、黨派意識—2006 年台北市長選舉投票行為研究。台灣民主季刊，5，59-87。
   連結：
3. 俞振華、蔡佳泓(2006)。如何利用全國性民調推估地方民意？多層次貝式定理估計模型與分層加權的應用。台灣政治學刊，10，5-38。
   連結：
4. 張傳賢、黃信達(2013)。2010 年台中市長選舉中泛藍選票流失之分析。台灣民主季刊，10，1-53。
   連結：
5. 陳文學、羅清俊(2012)。影響台灣民眾重分配政策偏好的因素。人文及社會科學集刊，24，367-397。
   連結：
6. 黃信豪(2006)。多層模型於選民投票行為研究的應用：以2004 年總統選舉為例。東吳政治學報，22，161-205。
   連結：
7. 劉嘉薇(2008)。2005 年縣市長選舉選民投票決定之影響因素：台北縣、台中市、雲林縣以及高雄縣的分析。臺灣民主季刊，5，1-43。
   連結：
8. 蔡佳泓(2012)。選舉課責：以2009 年台灣縣市長選舉為例。社會科學論叢，6，35-67。
   連結：
9. 蔡佳泓、俞振華(2011)。地方政府如何回應民意？以2006-2007 年為例。台灣政治學刊，15，73-136。
   連結：
10. 蕭怡靖、游清鑫(2008)。施政表現與投票抉擇的南北差異—2006 年北高市長選舉的探討。台灣民主季刊，5，1-25。
    連結：
11. 蕭怡靖、黃紀(2010)。2008 年立委選舉候選人票之分析：選民個體與選區總體的多層模型。台灣政治學刊，14，3-53。
    連結：
12. 蕭怡靖、黃紀(2011)。施政表現在不同層級地方選舉中的影響： 2009 年雲林縣縣長及鄉鎮市長選舉之分析。選舉研究，18，59-86。
    連結：
13. Lippman, W., 1922, Public Opinion, New York: Free Press
14. 天下雜誌，2010，「2010 年25 縣市幸福縣市大調查」，http://www.cw.com.tw/survey/2010city/，最後瀏覽日期：2012/05/04
15. Achen, C. H. and L. M. Bartels, 2004, “Blind Retrospection Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacks,” Working Paper, Princeton University
16. Ashworth, S. and E. B. de Mesquita, 2013, “Disasters and Incumbent Electoral Fortunes: No Implications for Democratic Competence,” Working Paper, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago
17. Lippman, W., 1925, The Phantom Public, New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers Press
18. 中華民國統計資訊網，2014，http://ebas1.ebas.gov.tw/pxweb/Dialog/statfile9.asp，最後瀏覽日期：2014/09/20
19. Achen, C. H.(2005).Two-Step Hierarchical Estimation: Beyond Regression Analysis.Political Analysis,13,447-456.
20. Albert, J. H.,Chib, S.(1993).Bayesian Analysis of Binary and Polychotomous Response Data.Journal of the American Statistical Association,88,669-679.
21. Anderson, C. J.(2000).Economic Voting and Political Context: A Comparative Perspective.Electoral Studies,19,151-170.
22. Ansolabehere, S.,Jones, P. E.(2010).Constituents' Responses to Congressional Roll-Call Voting.American Journal of Political Science,54,583-597.
23. Bafumi, J.,Gelman, A.(2006).Fitting Multilevel Models When Predictors and Group Effects Correlate.2006 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association,Chicago:
24. Bartels, L. M.(1996).Pooling Disparate Observations.American Journal of Political Science,40,905-942.
25. Dahl, R. A.(1971).Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition.New Haven:Yale University Press.
26. Downs, A.(1957).An Economic Theory of Democracy.New York:Harper Collins Publishers Inc Press.
27. Duch, R. M.,Stevenson, R. T.(2008).The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results.New York:Cambridge University Press.
28. Fiorina, M. P.(1981).Retrospective Voting in American National Elections.New Haven:Yale University Press.
29. Fraile, M.,Lewis-Beck, M. S.(2010).Economic Voting in Spain: A 2000 Panel Test.Electoral Studies,29,210-220.
30. Gelman, A.(2006).Prior Distributions for Variance Parameters in Hierarchical Models.Bayesian Analysis,1,515-533.
31. Gelman, A.(2009).Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do.New Jersey:Princeton University Press.
32. Gelman, A.,Carlin, J. B.,Stern, H. S.,Rubin, D. B.(2004).Bayesian Data Analysis.London:Chapman and Hall Press.
33. Gelman, A.,Hill, J.(2007).Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
34. Gill, J.(2008).Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach.London:Chapman and Hall Press.
35. Gomez, B. T.,Wilson, J. M.(2001).Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American Electorate: A Theory of Heterogeneous Attribution.American Journal of Political Science,45,899-914.
36. Gomez, B. T.,Wilson, J. M.(2003).Causal Attribution and Economic Voting in American Congressional Elections.Political Research Quarterly,56,271-282.
37. Gomez, B. T.,Wilson, J. M.(2006).Cognitive Heterogeneity and Economic Voting: A Comparative Analysis of Four Democratic Electorates.American Journal of Political Science,50,127-145.
38. Guisinger, A.(2009).Determining Trade Policy: Do Voters Hold Politicians Accountable?.International Organization,63,533-557.
39. Hsieh, F. S.,Niou, E. M. S.(1996).Salient Issues in Taiwan's Electoral Politics.Electoral Studies,15,219-235.
40. Hsieh, J. F. S.,Niou, E. M. S.(1996).Issue Voting in the Republic of China on Taiwan's 1992 Legislative Yuan Election.International Journal of Political Science,17,13-27.
41. Jackman, S.(2009).Bayesian Analysis for the Social Science.New York:John Wiley and Sons Press.
42. Key, V. O.(1966).The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936-1960.Cambridge:Harvard University Press.
43. Kiewiet, D. R.(1983).Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
44. Kinder, D.,Kiewiet, D. R.(1981).Sociotropic Politics: The American Case.British Journal of Political Science,11,129-161.
45. Kramer, G. H.(1971).Short-term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964.American Political Science Review,71,131-143.
46. Lewis-Beck, M. S.,Stegmaier, M.(2000).Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.Annual Review Political Science,3,183-219.
47. Lim, K. Y.,Wu, H. S.,Yu, E. C. H.(2010).Is All Politics Local? National Factors in Taiwan's Local Elections.2010 International Conference on Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study: Local Elections and Local Governance,Taipei:
48. Markus, G. B.(1988).The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Analysis.American Journal of Political Science,32,137-154.
49. Miller, A. H.,Wattenberg, M. P.(1985).Throwing the Rascals Out: Policy and Performance Evaluations of Presidential Candidates, 1952-1980.American Political Science Review,79,359-372.
50. Paluck, E. L.,Green, D. P.(2009).Deference, Dissent, and Dispute Resolution: An Experimental Intervention using Mass Media to Change Norms and Behavior in Rwanda.American Political Science Review,103,622-644.
51. Park, D.,Gelman, A.,Bafumi, J.(2004).Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Postratification: State-level Estimates from National Polls.Political Analysis,12,375-385.
52. Peterson, P.(1995).The Price of Federalism.Washington, D. C.:The Brookings Institution Press.
53. Powell, G. B.,Whitten, G. D.(1993).A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.American Journal of Political Science,37,391-414.
54. Soroka, S.,Wlezien, C.(2004).Opinion Representation and Policy Feedback: Canada in Comparative Perspective.Canadian Journal of Political Science,37,531-559.
55. Soroka, S.,Wlezien, C.(2010).Degrees of Democracy: Politics, Public Opinion, and Policy.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
56. Soroka, S.,Wlezien, C.(2005).Opinion-policy Dynamics: Public Preferences and Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom.British Journal of Political Science,35,665-689.
57. Warshaw, C.,Rodden, J.(2012).How Should We Measure District-level Public Opinion on Individual Issues?.Journal of Politics,74,203-219.
58. Western, B.(1998).Causal Heterogeneity in Comparative Research: A Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling Approach.American Journal of Political Science,42,1233-1259.
59. Wlezien, C.(1995).The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending.American Journal of Political Science,39,981-1000.
60. Wlezien, C.,Soroka, S. N.(2010).Federalism and Public Responsiveness to Policy.2010 Annual Conference of the Canadian Political Science Association,Montreal:
61. Zielinski, J.,Slomczynski, K. M.,Shabad, G.(2005).Electoral Control in New Democracies: The Perverse Incentives of Fluid Party Systems.World Politics,57,365-395.
62. 吳重禮、李世宏(2004)。政府施政表現與選民投票行為：以2002 年北高市長選舉為例。理論與政策，17，1-24。
63. 許勝懋、黃志呈(2012)。民眾之兩岸經貿認知—實質利益或政黨認同考量？2010 台北市、台中市、高雄市直轄市長選舉個案分析。城市學學刊，3，107-151。
64. 黃秀端(2010)。行政院國科會委託行政院國科會委託,行政院國科會。

1. Tsai, Chia-hung(2015).Measuring Public Opinion toward Social Welfare in Taiwan.臺灣政治學刊,19(1),241-279.
2. 蔡艾真、劉正山(2016)。中間選民的迷思與隱性選民之政黨傾向初探。臺灣政治學刊，20(2)，65-123。
3. 彭睿仁(2019)。聯邦體制與選舉制度對不同層級選舉間選民政黨偏好轉移之影響：德國2013年至2017年聯邦衆議院及巴登－符騰堡邦議會選舉之實證研究。問題與研究，58(2)，115-189。
4. 彭睿仁(2021)。兩輪投票制對選民政治態度左右極化之影響－2016年奧地利聯邦總統選舉之跨層次分析。國際關係學報，51，91-131。
5. 涂志揚、俞振華(2017)。選舉預測：利用全國性調查推估區域立委選情。東吳政治學報，35(3)，71-120。