旅遊業市場干擾、旅遊財價格與匯率目標區

Tourism Market Disturbance, Tourism Price and the Exchange Rate Target Zone

10.3966/054696002017120102004

戴孟宜(Meng-Yi Tai)；施仰哲(Yang-Che Shih)；呂麗蓉(Lee-Jung Lu)

匯率目標區 ； 蜜月效果 ； 旅遊業 ； Optimal Exchange Rate Target Zone ； Honeymoon Effect ； Tourism

應用經濟論叢

102期（2017 / 12 / 01）

115 - 148

繁體中文

本文主要探討在資本完全移動的情況下，政府藉由財政政策設立匯率目標區時，當經濟體系面臨來自旅遊業市場之隨機干擾時，匯率是否會因為設立匯率目標區而變得相對穩定以及是否必須付出旅遊財價格波動幅度作為代價，本文發現：(1)當旅遊業市場出現隨機干擾時，政府宣示實施匯率目標區，是否具有蜜月效果，須視財富效果的相對大小而定。(2)財富效果相對較大的情況下，匯率是否存在蜜月效果以及旅遊財價格穩定與否需進一步視本國旅遊消費支出之相對大小而定。(3)財富效果相對較小的時候，匯率必定存在蜜月效果；而其旅遊財價格是否穩定需視旅遊財價格之預期變動與匯率之預期變動相對大小而定。

Under the assumption of free movement of capital, governments normally set up the exchange rate target zone via the fiscal policy when their economies facing the tourism market disturbance. This paper shows how the establishment of exchange rate target zone to affect the stability of the exchange rate and to raise the possibility of paying a larger volatility of tourism price to the economy. We found that whether the honeymoon effect from the exchange rate target zone exists depending on the relative magnitude of wealth effect. Moreover, under the situation of a larger wealth effect, the relative domestic tourism expenditure determines not only the existence of honeymoon effect, but also the stabilities of the exchange rate and tourism price. In contrast to above situation, the exchange rate does exist the honeymoon effect when the relative wealth effect is smaller. Further, the stability of tourism price will be decided by the expected changes of both tourism price and exchange rate.

1. 黃秋瓊、胡士文(2008)。匯率目標區和股價之穩定。交大管理學報，28，169-203。
   連結：
2. 廖培賢(2010)。名目所得目標區下的蜜月效果直覺圖形分析─產出與股價雙預期的考量。經濟論文叢刊，38，99-146。
   連結：
3. 廖培賢(2008)。利率目標區下的蜜月效果直覺圖形分析─產出與股價雙預期的考量。經濟論文，36，425-473。
   連結：
4. 賴景昌、王葳、胡士文(2000)。目標區與農產品價格的穩定：小型開放經濟之分析。農業經濟叢刊，6，33-66。
   連結：
5. 戴孟宜、呂麗蓉、吳純華、胡士文(2015)。國內外貨幣政策宣告與旅遊財價格、匯率之動態調整：浮動匯率制度的探討。東海管理評論，17，126-161。
   連結：
6. 日本政府觀光局，2016，JNTO 日本政府觀光局統計，取自https://www.jnto.go.jp/jpn/statistics/visitor_trends/，檢索日期：2016/08/24。
7. 中華民國交通部，2016，國人赴日本人數，取自https://stat.motc.gov.tw/mocdb/stmain.jsp?sys=100，檢索日期：2016/08/24。
8. 中華民國中央銀行，2016，我國與主要貿易對手通貨之匯率月資料，取自http://www.pxweb.cbc.gov.tw/dialog/statfile9.asp，檢索日期：2016/08/24。
9. Bertola, G.,Caballero, R. J.(1992).Target Zones and Realignments.American Economic Review,82,520-536.
10. Chao, C. C.,Hu, S. W.,Lu, L. J.(2012).Price Dynamics, Foreign Exchange, and Anticipated Shocks in a Tourism Economy.Pacific Economic Review,17,355-365.
11. Chao, C. C.,Lu, L. J.,Lai, C. C.,Hu, S. W.,Wang, V.(2013).Devaluation, Pass-through and Foreign Reserves Dynamics in a Tourism Economy.Economic Modelling,30,456-461.
12. Crouch, G. I.(1994).The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Survey of Practice.Journal of Travel Research,32,41-55.
13. Dwyer, L.(ed.),Forsyth, P.(ed.)(2006).International Handbook on the Economics of Tourism.Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Press.
14. Frankel, J. A.(1986).Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,68,344-348.
15. Krugman, P. R.(1991).Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics.The Quarterly Journal of Economics,106,669-682.
16. Lai, C. C.,Chang, J. J.(2001).A Note on Inflation Targeting.The Journal of Economic Education,32,369-380.
17. Lai, C. C.,Fang, C. R.(2012).Is the Honeymoon Effect Valid in the Presence of Both Exchange Rate and Output Expectations? A Graphical Analysis.International Review of Economics & Finance,21,140-146.
18. Lai, C. C.,Fang, C. R.,Chang, J. J.(2008).Volatility Trade-offs in Exchange Rate Target Zones.International Review of Economics & Finance,17,366-379.
19. Lai, C. C.,Hu, S. W.,Fan, C. P.(2005).The Overshooting Hypothesis of Agricultural Prices: The Role of Asset Substitutability.Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,30,128-150.
20. UNWTO(2016).UNWTO World Tourism Barometer,14
21. Williamson, J.(1983).The Exchange Rate System.Washington DC:Institute for International Economics Press.

1. (2023)。海洋休閒旅遊與總體經濟變數關聯之研究。觀光休閒學報，29(3)，317-345。