農產品收購政策與現金補貼政策對農產品產地價格的動態影響

The Effects of Purchasing and Subsidy Policies on Dynamics of the Farm Prices

10.3966/054696002020060107003

戴孟宜(Meng-Yi Tai)

農產品產地價格 ； 政策宣告 ； 動態調整 ； Farm Prices of Agricultural Products ； Policy Announcement ； Dynamic Adjustment

應用經濟論叢

107期（2020 / 06 / 01）

85-131 - 127

繁體中文

本文應用小型開放兩部門總體動態模型，探討在一個資本不完全移動的小型開放經濟體系下，政府實施農產品收購政策以及補貼政策，對農產品產地價格、匯率（或製造業產品價格）之影響效果。本文發現：（1）若政府採行收購政策，長期必將造成農產品產地價格上漲；而若採行補貼政策，農產品產地價格可能上漲、可能下跌，需視「資本移動程度」以及農產品的「價格效果」而定。（2）不論政府採行收購或者補貼政策，對匯率長期均衡值的影響均為不確定，取決於「資本移動程度」相對大小。（3）若政府宣告對農產品的收購數量提高，在宣告之際農產品產地價格在短期可能出現低度調整、以及錯向調整之狀況；而匯率則只會出現低度調整現象。此結果可以解釋台灣2002～2016年實際數據下之農產品產地價格錯向調整、以及匯率低度調整狀況。（4）若政府宣告提高補貼，在宣告之際農產品產地價格可能出現低度調整、以及過度調整；而匯率則有可能出現低度調整、或錯向調整現象。此結果可用來解釋台灣2002～2016年實際數據下之部分衝擊反應結果。

In this paper, the macroeconomic dynamic model of small and open sectors has been applied to probe the effects of the government's agricultural product purchase policy and subsidy policy on the price of agricultural products and exchange rate (or the price of manufacturing products). The results of the research indicate as follows: 1) the price of agricultural products will rise in the long run if the government adopts the purchase policy; yet the price of agricultural products may rise and fall if the subsidy policy is adopted, which depends on the ＂degree of capital mobility＂ and the ＂price effect＂ of the agricultural products, 2) regardless of the government's purchase or subsidy policies, the impact on the long-term equilibrium values of the exchange rate is uncertain, and it must depend on the relative size of the ＂degree of capital mobility＂, 3) the prices of agricultural products may undergo under shooting adjustments and misadjustment in the short-term if the government announces an increase in the purchases quantities of agricultural products; and furthermore, exchanges rates will only show undershooting adjustments. These conclusions may explain some impulse response results, and 4) there will be undershooting or overshooting in the prices of agricultural products if the government announces an increase in subsidies for agricultural product prices, and the exchange rate may consequently be undershooting or misadjustment. These analyses can explain some impulse response results.

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