美中經貿衝突對臺灣產業之經濟影響評估：以臺灣半導體及資通訊產業為例

An Economy-wide Impact Assessment of US-China Trade Friction on Taiwan's Semiconductor and ICT Industry

10.3966/054696002020120108002

朱育賢(Yu-Hsien Chu)；徐世勳(Shih-Hsun Hsu)

美中經貿衝突 ； 半導體及資通訊產業 ； 可計算一般均衡模型 ； Trade Friction ； Semiconductor ； Information and Communication Technology (ICT) ； Taiwan Computable General Equilibrium Model (GEMTEE)

應用經濟論叢

108期（2020 / 12 / 01）

33 - 71

繁體中文

儘管美中衝突已被廣泛討論，但各研究機構對於全球經濟受影響的看法仍莫衷一是，且對產業之影響也無量化評估。本文探討2017至2020年美中衝突對臺灣半導體與資通訊產業的經濟影響。本文採用可計算一般均衡模型（computable general equilibrium, CGE）及其資料庫，透過與多位產業專家深度訪談，模擬美中摩擦對產業之影響。第一階段使用全球貿易分析模型（global trade analysis project, GTAP）分析美中互加關稅10%～25%下對臺灣總體及各產業部門進出口價格的影響，第二階段則根據第一階段結果及產業專家的看法，使用臺灣可計算一般均衡模型（general equilibrium model for the Taiwanese economy and environment, GEMTEE）分析對半導體與資通訊產業之影響。模擬結果顯示美中衝突將對臺灣總體經濟產生負面影響，但衝擊較其他研究機構預估小得多，顯見臺灣廠商將受惠轉單效應。但當關稅提高到25%時，轉單效果將被總體經濟下滑的影響抵消，且對半導體產業的影響將比對資通訊產業之影響更大。為降低美中衝突對臺灣產業之影響，廠商應致力分散經營風險、增加經營彈性與韌性、加強研發以提高競爭力、導入智慧製造，以因應美中摩擦之衝擊。本文著重由下而上（bottom-up）的研究方法，透過與產業專家之討論，共同檢視情境設定與參數校準，使模擬結果更趨合理並符合實務情況，作為業者在美中衝突持續下，營運調整之參考依據。

Although the issue about the US-China friction has been widely discussed, views about the impact by research institutions are diversifying, and there is little empirical study on individual industries. This article explores the economic impact of the US-China friction on Taiwan's semiconductor and ICT (Information and Communication Technology) industry from 2017 to 2020. This paper uses the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and Input-Output table to simulate the impact of the US-China friction on industries through in-depth interviews with industry experts. In the first stage, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) are used to analyze the impact of 10%~25% tariffs imposed by the United States and China on Taiwan's macro-economy and the import and export prices of individual industries. Based on the results of the first stage and the opinions of industry experts, the second stage uses the General Equilibrium Model for Taiwanese Economy and Environment (GEMTEE) model to analyze the impact on Taiwan's semiconductor and ICT industry. The simulation results show that the US-China friction will have a negative impact on Taiwan's macro-economy, but the impact is much smaller than the estimates of some research institutions, which shows that Taiwanese manufacturers will benefit from the order transfer effect. However, when the tariff is increased to 25%, the order transfer effect will be largely offset by the impact of the global economic downturn, and the impact on the semiconductor industry will be greater than the impact on the ICT industry. To reduce the impact of the US-China friction on Taiwan's industries, manufacturers should strive to diversify business risks, increase business flexibility and resilience, strengthen R&D to improve competitiveness, and introduce smart manufacturing to cope with the impact of US-China friction. The feature of this study is an emphasis on bottom-up research methods. Through repeated discussions with industry experts, the situation settings and parameter calibration are reviewed to make the simulation more reasonable and in line with practical conditions. Under the continued confrontation between the United States and China in the future, the result can be the reference direction for business operation adjustment.

1. 林幸君, H. C.,李慧琳, H. L.,許聖民, S. M.,林國榮, K. J.,李篤華, D. H.,張靜貞, C. C.,徐世勳, S. H.(2015)。少子化與高齡化下的台灣人口預測與經濟分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策，46，113-156。
   連結：
2. 徐世勳, S. H.,吳秉叡, B. R.(2002)。WTO 架構下開放大陸投資之經貿影響評估。臺灣經濟預測與政策，33，75-110。
   連結：
3. 徐世勳, S. H.,林國榮, K. J.,蘇漢邦, H. P.,林桓聖, H. S.,李篤華, D. H.(2006)。臺灣產業結構變動之動態一般均衡預測。臺灣經濟預測與政策，36，1-46。
   連結：
4. 徐世勳, S. H.,張靜貞, C. C.,楊子江, T. C.,李篤華, D. H.,林幸君, H. C.(2007)。臺灣 SARS 疫情經濟影響的事後分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策，38，1-34。
   連結：
5. 陳柏琪, P. C.,張靜貞, C. C.,陳肇男, C. N.,許聖民, S. M.,林幸君, H. C.(2020)。台灣縣市別長照需要人口之中長期推計及趨勢分析。人文及社會科學集刊
   連結：
6. 劉瑞文, R. W.,許聖民, S. M.,林幸君, H. C.,謝德衍, T. Y.,張靜貞, C. C.,徐世勳, H. S.(2018)。政府擴大公共建設投資支出對我國總體經濟、財政及所得分配影響之動態一般均衡分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策，48，41-77。
   連結：
7. Chang, C. C.,Hsu, S. H.,Lin, H. C.,Lee, D. H.,Chen, C. C.,Wu, C. H.(2018).A Progress Report for Sustainability Science Research ProgramA Progress Report for Sustainability Science Research Program,Taiwan:Academia Sinica.
8. Dixon, P. B.,Rimmer, M. T.(2002).Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH, Contributions to Economic Analysis.Amsterdam:Elsevier Press.
9. Dong, Y.,Whalley, J.(2012).Gains and Losses from Potential Bilateral U.S.-China Trade Retaliation.Economic Modelling,29,2226-2236.
10. Guo, M.,Lu, L.,Sheng, G.,Yu, M. J.(2018).The Day after Tomorrow: Evaluating the Burden of Trump’s Trade War.Asian Economic Papers,17,101-120.
11. Harrison, W. J.,Pearson, K. R.(1996).Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK.Computational Economics,9,83-127.
12. Helpman, E.,Melitz, M.,Rubinstein, Y.(2008).Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes.Quarterly Journal of Economics,123,441-487.
13. Hertel, T. W.(1997).Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
14. Li, C. D.,He, C. T.,Lin, C. W.(2018).Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War.Emerging Markets Finance & Trade,54,1557-1577.
15. Steinbock, D.(2018).U.S.-China Trade War and Its Global Impacts.China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies,4,515-542.
16. Waugh, E. M.(2010).International Trade and Income Differences.American Economic Review,100,2093-2124.
17. Waugh, E. M.(2019).NBER Working PaperNBER Working Paper,未出版
18. 丁維瑀，2019，「中國下令公家機關 3 年撤換外國電腦斷送 3000 萬零件」，金融時報，取自 https://www.ettoday.net/news/20191209/1597435.htm#ixzz6XMXIVh65， 檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Ding, W. Y., 2019, “China Orders Public Agencies to Replace Foreign Computers in Three Years, Ruining 30 Million Parts”, Financial Times, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://www.ettoday.net/news/20191209/1597435.htm#ixzz6XMXIVh65.)
19. 今周刊=Business Today(2019)。中美貿易戰臺灣最慘？25%關稅對台影響全解析。今周刊，1169
20. 朱雲鵬，2019，「貿易戰對台灣經濟的影響很嚇人」 ， 中國時報 ， 取自https://www.npf.org.tw/1/20057，檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Chu, Y. P., 2018, “The Impact of the Trade War on Taiwan’s Economy is Scary”, China Times, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://www.npf.org.tw/1/20057.)
21. 行政院主計總處，2014b，2011 年臺灣地區產業關聯表，臺北：行政院主計總處。(Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, 2014b, 2011 Input-Output Tables, Taipei: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan.)
22. 行政院主計總處，2014c，國民所得統計年報，臺北：行政院主計總處。(Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, 2014c, National Accounts Yearbook, Taipei: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan.)
23. 行政院主計總處，2014a，國富統計報告，臺北：行政院主計總處。(Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, 2014a, National Wealth, Taipei: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan.)
24. 洪友芳，2019，「工研院：台半導體產值今年有望重返全球第二大」，自由時報，取自https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1275953，檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Hong, Y. F., 2019, “Industrial Technology Research Institute: Taiwan’s Semiconductor Output Value is Expected to Return to the World’s Second Largest”, Liberty Times, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1275953.)
25. 凌郁涵，2019，「野村：中美貿易戰持續越南、台灣成最大受惠國」，鉅亨網，取自https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4330820，檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Ling, Y. H., 2019, “Nomura: China-US Trade War Continues, Vietnam and Taiwan become the Biggest Beneficiaries”, Anue, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4330820.)
26. 徐世勳, S. H.,劉瑞文, R. W.(2020).投入產出分析概論.台北=Taipei:雙葉書廊=Yeh Yeh Book Gallery.
27. 徐世勳, S. H.,劉瑞文, R. W.,林幸君, H. C.(1997)。臺灣可計算一般均衡 (CGE) 動態預測模型之建立。1997 年總體經濟計量模型研討會，臺北=Taipei:
28. 翁永和, Y. H.,許光中, K. C.,徐世勳, S. H.,杜芳秋, F. C.(2001)。兩岸開放全面三通對亞太地區經貿之影響。臺灣經濟學會年會論文集，台北=Taipei:
29. 財政部統計處，2019，「亞洲主要經濟體出口概況及對美、中消長情形」，財政部統計處，取自 https://www.mof.gov.tw/download/21845，檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Statistics Department, Ministry of Finance, 2019, “Overview of Exports of Major Asian Economies and Their Growth and Decline in the United States and China”, Statistics Department, Ministry of Finance, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://www.mof.gov.tw/download/21845.)
30. 財政部統計處，2020，「108 年我國出進口貿易概況」，財政部統計處，取自http://service.mof.gov.tw/public/Data/statistic/bulletin/109/108%E5%B9%B4%E6%88%91%E5%9C%8B%E5%87%BA%E9%80%B2%E5%8F%A3%E8%B2%BF%E6%98%93%E6%A6%82%E6%B3%81.pdf，檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Statistics Department, Ministry of Finance, 2020, “Overview of My Country’s Import and Export Trade in 108 Years”, Statistics Department, Ministry of Finance, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from http://service.mof.gov.tw/public/Data/statistic/bulletin/109/108%E5%B9%B4%E6%88%91%E5%9C%8B%E5%87%BA%E9%80%B2%E5%8F%A3%E8%B2%BF%E6%98%93%E6%A6%82%E6%B3%81.pdf.)
31. 財團法人資訊工業策進會產業情報研究所，2018，「2019 臺灣通訊產值達 3.5 兆年成長率 2.5%」，財團法人資訊工業策進會產業情報研究所，取自：https://mic.iii.org.tw/news.aspx?id=498&List=72，檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute, 2018, “2019 Taiwan’s Telecommunications Output Value Reaches 3.5 Trillion, Annual Growth Rate of 2.5%”, Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute, Retrieved April15, 2020, from https://mic.iii.org.tw/news.aspx?id=498&List=72.)
32. 細川倫太郎與木原雄士，2018，「中國 GDP 或被貿易戰拉低 1%」，日經中文網，取自https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/epolitics/32453-2018-09-29-10-25-47.html ， 檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Hosokawa R. and T. Kihara, 2018, “China’s GDP May be Reduced by 1% by the Trade War”, Nikkei, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/epolitics/32453-2018-09-29-10-25-47.html.)
33. 陳竫詒，2019，「10 年來全球經濟最弱時刻，台灣遭下調 IMF 警告：沒有錯誤空間」，天下雜誌，取自 https://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5097250，檢索日期：2020/04/15。 (Chen, J. Y., 2019, “At the Weakest Moment of the Global Economy in 10 Years, Taiwan has been Downgraded. IMF Warns: There is No Room for Error”, CommonWealth Magazine, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5097250.)
34. 黃煒軒,W. H.(2019)。美重量級智庫學者：台灣將有轉單紅利。今周刊，1151
35. 楊芙宜，2019，「亞洲 4 小龍 GDP 成長率下修高盛：台灣 2.3% 仍居首」，自由時報，取自 https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/2886578，檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Yang, F. Y., 2019, “The GDP Growth Rate of the Asian 4 Dragons is Revised Down. Goldman Sachs: Taiwan still Tops 2.3%”, Liberty Times, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/2886578.)
36. 資誠聯合會計師事務所，2019，「中美貿易摩擦對台灣及大陸企業的影響」，資誠聯合會計師事務所，取自https://www.pwc.tw/zh/publications/topic-tax/trade-war.html，檢索日期：2020/04/15。(PricewaterhouseCoopers Taiwan, 2019, “The Impact of US-ChinaTrade Friction on Taiwan and China Enterprises”, PricewaterhouseCoopers Taiwan, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://www.pwc.tw/zh/publications/topic-tax/trade-war.ht ml.)
37. 鉅亨網新聞中心，2019，「華為晶片採購金額突破 210 億美元躍升全球第三」，鉅亨網，取自https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4277874，檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Anue News Center, 2019, “Huawei’s Chip Procurement Exceeded US$21 Billion, Jumping to Third Place in the World”, Anue, Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4277874.)
38. 臺灣半導體產業協會，2019，「2019 年臺灣 IC 產業產值逆勢成長 1.7%」，電子工程專輯，取自 https://www.eettaiwan.com/20200224nt21-taiwan-ic-industry-output-value/，檢索日期：2020/04/15。(Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association, 2019, “Taiwan’s IC Industry Output Value Grows 1.7% Against the Trend in 2019”, Electronics Engineering Times, Taiwan., Retrieved April 15, 2020, from https://www.eettaiwan.com/20200224nt21-taiwan-ic-industry-output-value/.)
39. 蘇孟宗, M. T(2018)。美中貿易戰對台灣產業的影響與機會貿易保護主義持續延燒產業彈性應變保生存。臺灣銀行家雜誌，106，48-50。