節慶活動遊客旅遊需求及遊憩效益評估－以綠色博覽會爲例

Evaluation of Visitor Travel Demand and Recreation Benefits in the Special Event-A Case of Yi-Lan Green Exposition

10.6181/agec.2007.39.05

李俊鴻(Chun-Hung Lee)；陳吉仲(Chi-Chung Chen)

節慶活動 ； 遊憩效益 ； 計數資料模型 ； Special event ； Recreation benefits ； Count data models

農業與經濟

39期（2007 / 12 / 01）

137 - 166

繁體中文

本研究利用TCM建立節慶活動的遊憩需求實證模型，並以計數模型中TPOIS、TNB及On-Site Poisson模型來修正綠色博覽會現場樣本截斷與內生分層問題，利用最大概似法推估節慶活動旅遊需求模型，估算遊客參與節慶活動的價格彈性、交叉彈性及所得彈性，並推估遊客參與綠色博覽會的遊憩效益。研究發現：(1)利用On-SitePoisson模型能修正節慶活動現場樣本截斷與內生分層問題。(2)遊客參與節慶活動的價格彈性、交叉彈性及所得彈性分別爲－13.18%、9.12%與16.27%。(3)參與宜蘭綠色博覽會每位遊客的年遊憩效益介於5,594元至6,676元。本研究結果將有助於宜蘭縣政府與相關單位在將來節慶活動管理策略制訂參考之依循，此結果亦能應用在性質相近的節慶活動。

The Purpose of this study is using travel cost method measured the consumer surplus (CS) of special event. We compare Truncated Poisson, Truncated Negative and On-Site Poisson count data models to estimated trip demands of visitor by using maximum likelihood estimate. This study has found that: (1) reduced the truncation and endogenous stratification by using On-Site Poisson model. (2) the elasticity of demand, cross-price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of visitor in special event is-13.18%, 9.12% and 16.27%. (3) the CS values from N. T. 5,594 to N. T. 6,676 for year of average visitor in Yi-Lan Green Exposition.

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