利用一般均衡模型評估觀光與旅遊活動的經濟效果：以「觀光客倍增計畫」爲例

Using CGE Modeling to Evaluate the Economics Impacts of Tourism and Travel in Taiwan: Lessons from Doubling Tourist Arrivals Plan

10.6130/JORS.2007.20(3)4

楊浩彥(Hao-Yen Yang)

觀光與旅遊 ； 可計算一般均衡模型 ； 台灣 ； Tourism and travel ； computable general equilibrim model CGE ； Taiwan

戶外遊憩研究

20卷3期（2007 / 09 / 01）

73 - 95

繁體中文

本研究的目的在建立一個涵蓋觀光與旅遊活動的可計算一般均衡模型，並評估該模型應用在台灣地區的可行性。本研究以行政院挑戰2008國家重點發展計畫的「觀光客倍增計畫」爲研究案例，評估該計畫的落實對台灣總體經濟與產業結構的影響。本研究發現「觀光客倍增計畫」透過增加國際旅客消費支出可創造國民生產毛額並增加就業機會，本研究另對實證結果進一步詮釋其觀光與經濟意涵。從文獻回顧與本研究的結果來看，利用可計算一般均衡模型來評估觀光與旅遊的相關議題，未來應是一個可行的研究方法。

The objective of this paper was to construct a CGE models for tourism and travel activities, using consistent SAM data sources, and to utilize this model to investigate the economic impacts of Doubling Tourist Arrivals Plan regarding tourism in Taiwan. The target of this Plan was to double the number of foreign tourists arriving in Taiwan and thus stimulating the overall value-added of the economy and increasing job opportunities. Our results show that this Plan has beneficial effects on GDP and job markets through increased in tourism and travel expenditures. We also concluded with a discussion of the policy implications of the empirical results, and show the advantage of CGE framework for evaluating tourism and travel impacts on Taiwan.

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