台灣觀光需求─停留天數與消費金額之實證研究

Tourism Demand in Taiwan: Empirical Research of Length of Stays and Expenditures

10.6130/JORS.2012.25(1)4

蘇鈺雯(Yu-Wen Su)；林惠玲(Hui-Lin Lin)

負二項模型 ； 迴歸 ； 零截尾 ； 所得 ； 旅遊價格 ； Negative binomial model ； Regression ； Zero-truncated ； Income ； Price

戶外遊憩研究

25卷1期（2012 / 03 / 01）

85 - 109

繁體中文

本研究利用台灣觀光局的抽樣資料，估計台灣的觀光需求。以國人及外國人在台灣觀光的天數及消費為研究對象，為了符合資料分配的特性，使用零截尾負二項（Zero-truncated Negative Binomial）模型，探討影響台灣觀光需求的所得與旅遊價格因素，並提出台灣觀光產業未來的發展方向。實證結果指出，台灣的觀光需求受所得影響相當大，且不同特質的觀光客其所得的影響力不同；此外，觀光需求的尖離峰差異相當懸殊；並發現台灣觀光難以吸引商公務以及高預算的國外觀光客。

We are interested in measuring the demand of tourism for Taiwan, of both Taiwanese and foreign tourists, and simultaneously consider length of stay and expenditures as two measures of demand. Using data from the Tourism Bureau of Taiwan, we employ the Zero-truncated Negative Binomial model to study the effect of income, prices, and other characteristic variables. Based on empirical results, we first find that income would affect the demand of tourism for Taiwan significantly and this effect varies by different characteristics of tourists. Second, the variation of tourism demand is large between peak and off-peak dates. Third, tourism in Taiwan is not attractive to high-end businesses and high-budget foreign tourists.

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