陸上風力發電機組興建工程受風不確定性因素影響之工期預測模式

SCHEDULE PLANNING MODEL FOR ONSHORE WIND TURBINE CONSTRUCTION PROJECT SUBJECTED TO THE IMPACT OF WIND

10.6652/JoCICHE.201706_29(2).0005

郭斯傑(Sy-Jye Guo)；陳榮興(Jung-Hsing Chen)；丘佳欣(Chia-Hsin Chiu)

陸上風力發電機組 ； 風不確定性因素 ； 工期預測模式 ； 生產力 ； wind turbine construction ； impact of wind ； schedule planning model

中國土木水利工程學刊

29卷2期（2017 / 06 / 01）

109 - 117

繁體中文

風力發電具備低污染及低成本之優點，為具潛力的再生能源之一，且台灣風力資源充沛，故風力發電機組興建工程將在台灣積極開發推動。目前工程界實務上對於受天候影響之工期預估大多是根據經驗法則以概估方式處理。本研究引用陸上風力發電機組興建工程工址區域之歷史風速資料，藉由分析各級風對各受風敏感之作業項目的直接生產力影響，再結合經模糊隸屬函數量化處理之專家經驗，建立一受風影響之工期預測模式，並以「桃園蘆竹風力發電機組興建工程」為例，測試此工期預測模式之成效，期能提供排程人員更為可靠之工期預測與排程參考。

Because of its characteristics of low pollution and low cost, wind energy becomes one of the most promising renewable energy. With plentiful of wind energy, Taiwan is highly interested in establishing wind farms for sustainable green energy developments. However, wind could produce adverse impacts on some wind-sensitive tasks during constructing wind turbine projects. This research presents a schedule planning model for wind turbine construction project subjected to the impact of wind. Through the support of professional expertise, the employment of fuzzy membership functions, and the application of historical wind speed data, the productivity loss (PL) subjected to various Beaufort scale of wind can be analyzed and the duration can be simulated and forecasted by the model. Besides, an actual wind turbine construction project is used to demonstrate the practicality of the model. The findings from this research are very helpful in schedule planning for wind turbine construction projects subjected to the impact of wind.

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