台灣颱風路徑與風場之蒙地卡羅模擬

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF THE PATHS AND WIND FIELDS OF TYPHOONS LANDFALL TAIWAN

10.6652/JoCICHE.201912_31(8).0001

朱佳仁(Chia-Ren Chu)；羅仕亮(Shin-Liang Lo)

蒙地卡羅模式 ； 颱風模擬 ； 風速機率 ； 風災保險 ； monte carlo simulation ； typhoon simulation ； wind speed ； wind-related hazard

中國土木水利工程學刊

31卷8期（2019 / 12 / 01）

681 - 691

繁體中文

台灣位於西北太平洋颱風活躍區，颱風的強風和豪雨往往對台灣帶來重大的災害損失。內政部消防署的統計資料顯示：颱風為台灣最主要的天然災害，過去50年來颱風造成的累積財物損失超過地震所累積的損失。本研究利用統計分析美國聯合颱風警報中心1970～2016年之北太平洋上颱風的生成位置、移動速度、方向角、中心氣壓，找出其與經緯度之關係，再使用颱風中心氣壓差與風速之間的參數化模式及蒙地卡羅模式（Monte Carlo method）來模擬侵台颱風之移動路徑、中心氣壓及風速，並使用邊界層流模式來計算近地表之風速。地形對颱風中心氣壓的影響則以一個指數衰減函數方式來模擬，模擬之地表風速並與中央氣象局沿海的浮標測站之颱風風速比對，有不錯的結果。此法的優點為計算時間較傳統的颱風預報模式之計算時間短，可模擬數萬場颱風之路徑與風速，擴展颱風風速之樣本數，再進行統計分析，找出台灣各地強風的發生機率，可做為評估農業設施、離岸風機、太陽能板的風災保險之用。

Since Taiwan is located on the tracks of typhoons originated in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, typhoon is the most frequent and devastating natural disaster in Taiwan. This study develops a Monte Carlo model to simulate the tracks and wind fields of landfall typhoons in Taiwan. The Monte Carlo model is based on the historical data of the moving speed, direction and central pressure of typhoons between 1970 ~ 2016, collected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the US. The percentages of the simulated paths of typhoons compare favorably with the observed paths of typhoons by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. Then the wind speeds of typhoons were predicted by the parametric model of Holland (1980), and compared favorably with the observed wind speeds near the northern coast of Taiwan. This model can be used to compute the probability of extreme wind speeds and to assess the risk of wind-related hazards in Taiwan.

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