水資源供水系統長短期操作合併考量水庫水力排砂及地下水可用水量補注下之缺水風險評估研究

A STUDY ON THE ASSESSMENT OF WATER SHORTAGE RISK FOR A RESERCOIR WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS OF HYDRAULIC SEDIMENT REMOVAL AND GROUNDWATER AVAILABLE YIELD SUPPORT IN THE LONG AND SHORT TERM OPERATIONS

10.6652/JoCICHE.202105_33(3).0003

陳柏蒼(Boris Po-Tsang Chen)；陳昶憲(Chang-Shian Chen)；羅偉誠(Wei-Cheng Lo)；巫孟璇(Meng-Hsuan Wu)

缺水率 ； 序率過程 ； 產砂量分析 ； 地下水支援 ； water shortage rate ； stochastic process ； sediment yield estimation ； groundwater support

中國土木水利工程學刊

33卷3期（2021 / 05 / 01）

197 - 213

繁體中文

本研究估計曾文－烏山頭水庫系統之淤積趨勢自2017年有效庫容五億三千兩百萬立方公尺至續淤5、10、15及20年後等4種庫容，在評估本研究與水利署估列的水力排砂效益、啟動地下水支援供水後，就整體趨勢而言，啟動地下水支援地表乾季供水後，在極端乾旱事件約可供3～5%的缺水率減緩能力，惟所能貢獻部分，隨水庫的調節能力縮小而縮小。本研究方法除可為決策者就單一水源的水資源操作方式提供量化的供水風險外，亦可呈現特定工程策略（清淤及地下水補注）下之供水風險反應。未來如需評估多水源系統的聯合操作，則需再進一步考量電腦的計算能力。

The proposed study is an advanced study for the establishment of water resources regulation decision support system. In this study, the conditions of characteristics of shortages, which included rates, duration and occurrence probabilities, from different scenarios of reservoir capacities (effected by the volume of reservoir sediment) and given demands would be taken into the consideration of synthetic risk of regional water supply. The current available operations including the hydraulic sediment removal and groundwater support are not enough to compensate for the risk of water shortage that caused by the increasing sediment in the Tsengwen-Wusanto Reservoir system. This study can provide more useful and objective evaluations for decision makers who need to devise strategies to face the challenges of an impending drought, especially potential strategies involved inter-watersheds regulation.

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