小時雨量產生器應用於高屏地區氣候變遷淹水潛勢評估

FLOOD POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT IN THE GAOPING REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE USING AN HOURLY RAINFALL GENERATOR

10.6652/JoCICHE.202110_33(6).0006

陳彥丞(Yan-Cheng Chen)；陳佳正(Chia-Jeng Chen)

統計降尺度 ； 氣象資料繁衍 ； 水理數值模式 ； statistical downscaling ； weather generation ； numerical hydraulic model

中國土木水利工程學刊

33卷6期（2021 / 10 / 01）

461 - 472

繁體中文

為反映氣候變遷情境降雨於洪災模擬評估，本研究選用可繁衍小時雨量產生器，Advanced WEather GENerator（AWE-GEN），並配合HEC-RAS二維水理模式模擬研究區域之淹水情形。本研究選定高屏地區，首先利用AWE-GEN於高雄測站進行小時雨量繁衍並分析其統計特性，確立AWE-GEN之適用性。爾後選用MIROC5和HadGEM2-ES全球氣候模式，利用改變係數法繁衍未來情境雨量，再將100和200年重現期雨量序列輸入至HEC-RAS模擬高屏地區淹水情形。MIROC5在兩個重現期下之未來情境淹水相較於現況皆較不嚴重，而HadGEM2-ES則在100年重現期下之淹水較現況嚴重。此差異性透露出未來降雨和淹水之不確定性，亦彰顯序率分析於淹水潛勢評估之重要性。

To assess variations in precipitation and flood potential under climate change, we adopt the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN), capable of generating rainfall data at the hourly time step, in conjunction with the HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic model. We first use the AWE-GEN for generating hourly rainfall data at the Kaohsiung weather station, and then analyze various statistics of the generated hourly rainfall to ensure the applicability of the AWE-GEN. Afterwards, we apply the AWE-GEN to the downscaling of two selected global climate models, namely MIROC5 and HadGEM2-ES, based on the factor-of-change method. Rainfall time series in 100- and 200-year return periods abstracted from the generated rainfall are used for driving the calibrated HEC-RAS model to simulate flood potential maps in the Gaoping region. The simulation results of MIROC5, compared to the baseline simulation, indicate milder flooding in both return periods. In contrast, the results of HadGEM2-ES show severer flooding in 100-year return period. The diverse results not only imply the considerable uncertainties of future rainfall and flooding in the study region but also manifest the need for such stochastic analysis framework as this work.

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