水安全初探－水庫容量設計與缺水風險

A PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION OF WATER SECURITY IN TAIWAN REGARDING SHORTAGE RISK AND DESIGNING CRITERIA FOR RESERVOIR CAPACITY

10.6652/JoCICHE.202406_36(4).0005

吳嘉文(Chia-Wen Wu)；周乃昉(Frederick N.-F. Chou)

水安全 ； 缺水指標 ； 設計準則 ； 缺水風險 ； water security ； water shortage index ； design criteria ； shortage risk

中國土木水利工程學刊

36卷4期（2024 / 06 / 01）

365 - 376

繁體中文;英文

本文基於水文乾旱之分析架構，以序率理論中的Poisson過程呈現缺水事件發生之頻率，並假設缺水事件之總缺水量服從指數分佈，進而可推導出各種常用缺水指標的解析形式，再基於各指標之特性與水資源規劃與管理之需求，提出適於台灣水資源特性的一組水安全指標，分別為：基於公共給水標的缺水容忍度之年可靠度，以及最嚴重之年缺水日數百分比，此組指標分別呈現缺水風險之發生機會與嚴重程度，所含資訊並無重疊，可較精準呈現缺水過程的關鍵資訊，對於缺水特性更具有辨別性，故可用於評量各種水資源經理計畫成效，並可作為後續經濟性研究之基礎。

This study develops a framework to define the status of water security in terms of adequate supply for a water resources system. A pair of indices of water shortage are proposed, which are the annual reliability based on the tolerable shortage of public demand and the maximum annual deficit-percent-day respectively. By assigning acceptable thresholds for these indices, the status of the system can be evaluated and classified as being secure, unreliable but robust, reliable but unrobust, and unreliable and unrobust. The last three of which require development of regular and backup water resources to secure water supply. The proposed framework could be utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of water resources development scenarios, specify risks of water shortage and provide a basis for future studies to investigate the relationship between economic growth and water security.