住屋分配及數量預測－應用雙向比例調整法

Prediction of the Housing Distribution by Application of Bi-proportional Adjustment Method

10.6377/JA.200104.0029

胡志平(Chich-Ping Hu)

空屋率 ； 社區網絡 ； 住宅需求 ； 雙向比例矩陣 ； 住宅供給 ； Vacancy rate ； Social context ； Housing demand ； Bi-proportional matrix ； Housing supply

建築學報

35期（2001 / 04 / 20）

29 - 44

繁體中文

台灣地區住宅發展歷程與都市成長關係密不可分，但是一直以來由於缺乏住宅政策對總體住宅部門的適當規範及指導，致使住宅的發展雜亂無章。私部門住宅市場也因市場機制失靈，產生許多的問題如：房價高居不下、高空屋率、社區網絡失序等的問題發生。在缺乏一目標性及綱要性的住宅政策的現況下，客觀與正確的住屋分配及數量預測，是解決現階段住宅問題的次佳（second best）方案。住屋分配及數量的預測有助於公部門對住宅需求（housing demand）及住宅需要（housing need）量的確定，更有助於住宅市場有效率的運作。一般住屋數量的預測是以粗估方式並且以總量預測為主，導致住宅市場供需失衡，供給與需求落差加大。本文的目的乃在以總量細分方式（dis-aggregate）預測住屋分配及數量，在方法論上則以雙向比例矩陣推估住屋分配情形，預測的基礎不在移轉矩陣的計算，而在市場需求及供給的估計。

There has been existed interdependent relationship between housing development and urban growth in Taiwan area. The absence of adequate norms and direction on housing policy, these years, has resulted in the chaotic problems on the housing sector. A lot of issues such as high housing-price, High vacancy-rate, and social disorder have ever been raised recently because of the market failure in the private housing sector. Under the situation described above, the contemporary second best alternative to solve the housing problems in Taiwan area would be set upon to predict the housing distribution as well objectively as correctly.The objective and correct prediction on housing distribution is useful for the calculation of housing demand and housing need, moreover for the trades within housing market efficiently. The general approach, however, based on crude- aggregation method of prediction on the quantity of housing stock resulted in the gap between housing demand and housing supply.The purpose of this paper is to predict correctly on housing distribution by dis- aggregate method; Dbi-proportional adjustment method. The methodology of bi-proportional adjustment is to estimate the distribution of bi-proportional variable matrix in stead of calculation on the elements of transaction matrix.

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