BTO生產環境下供應鏈存貨政策之研究

The Study of Supply Chain Inventory Strategy Under BTO Production Environment

10.29977/JCIIE.200307.0008

陳銘崑(Ming-Kuen Chen)；鄭穎聰(Nan-Ya Tech Corp)

供應鏈管理 ； 長鞭效應 ； 系統動態學 ； VMI ； BTO ； supply chain management ； bullwhip effect ； system dynamics ； VMI ； BTO

工業工程學刊

20卷4期（2003 / 07 / 01）

398 - 410

繁體中文

由於企業環境急速變動，業界及學界提出供應鏈管理之觀念與作法以因應之。供應鏈常受到生產策略及存貨政策之影響，以致常造成鏈上資訊扭曲，即稱為長鞭效應現象。長鞭效應現象之造成因素主要包括時間滯延、供應鏈階層數、存貨管理決策行為、批量生產及訂購、預測誤差、價格波動等；這些因素造成的結果都反映在供應鏈各階層的庫存量的變動上。本文旨在探討在BTO(Build-to-Order)生產環境下不同存貨政策，(s,S)及VMI(Vendor Management Inventory)，對供應鏈長鞭效應之影響。文中針對供應鏈管理中長鞭效應現象，如波動最高點、波動最低點、上波動率、下波動率、波動幅度、及波動回穩時間作分析。本研究採用桌上型個人電腦產業為對象。文中首先以系統動態學建置BTO生產策略之模型；模型效度的檢定計分四項：穩態測試、階梯測試、季節波動測試、及實際資料測試。之後，再以此模型模擬之。其結果可提供供應鏈管理政策之參考依據。

Since the rapid change in industry environment, the academic and industry proposed the concept and procedure to solve the problems of supply chain management (SCM). SCM is often affected by the production and inventory strategy and it has the information distortion. This is called bullwhip effect. The major causes of bullwhip effect include time lag, supply chain level, inventory decision, batch production and order, forecast error, and price fluctuation. The results of these causes will response on the inventory of each level of supply chain. The purpose of this paper is to study the bullwhip effect influenced by two inventory strategies, (s,S) and Vendor Management Inventory(VMI),under BTO production environment. In this paper, the bullwhip effects, such as fluctuation uppermost point, fluctuation lowest point, fluctuation stable time, upstream demand enlarge ratio, total fluctuation stable time and total enlarge ratio, are analyzed. The system dynamics models of the BTO production strategy are constructed, and the inventory strategies are expressed by the model parameters. The system dynamic models are tested by steady state test, step test, seasonal fluctuation test, and real data test. Then, the simulation results are computed based on this model in order to find optimal policy combination. This optimal policy combination can be acted as reference for SCM decision-maker.

1. (1994).Stella II Technical Documentation.High Performance System Inc..
2. Fogarty, D. W.,Blackstone, J. H.,Hoffmann, T. R.(1991).Production and Inventory Management.South-Western.
3. Forrester, J. W.(1961).Industrial Dynamics.Cambridge, Mass:The MIT Press.
4. Kelle, P.,Milne, A.(1999).The Effect of (s,S) Ordering Policy on the Supply Chain.International Journal Production Economics,59
5. Lee, Hau L.,Padamanabhan, V.,Whang, Seungjin(1997).Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect.Management Science,43(4)
6. Lee, Hau L.,Padmanabhan, V.,Whang, Seungjin(1997).The bullwhip effect in supply chains.Sloan Management Review,38(3)
7. Metters, R.(1997).Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains.Journal of Operations Management,15
8. Naish, H. F.(1994).Production Smoothing in the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model.Quarterly Journal of Economics,104
9. Patrovic, D.,Roy, R.,Petrovic, R.(1998).Modeling and Simulation of a Supply Chain in an Uncertain Environment.European Journal of Operational Research,109
10. Senge, P. M.,Sterman, J. D.(1992).System Thinking and Organizational Leaning: Acting Locally and Thinking Globally in the Organization of the Future.European Journal of Operational Research,59(3)
11. Towill, D. R.,Vecchio, A. D.(1994).The Application of Filter Theory to the Study of Supply Chain Dynamics.Production Planning and Control,5
12. 王立志 Wang, Li-Chih(1999)。系統化運籌與供應鏈管理 Systematic logistics and supply chain management。滄海書局。
13. 王健全 Wang, Jiann-Chyuan(1998)。資訊電子業寡占化趨勢的發展對業界影響及其因應之道。經濟情勢暨評論，4(3)
14. 王傳義(1994)。零售業進、存、銷貨系統之整體動態決策研究 For the overall dynamic decision making research of the retailer's goods incoming, inventory and sales system : to take the hypermarket system for example。國立中山大學企業研究所。
15. 李平和(1997)。BTO模式對我國筆記型電腦產業影響之模擬研究 The Simulation for"Built to Order" Model on Taiwan Notebook Industry。元智大學管理研究所。
16. 杜志挺 Du, Timon Chih-Ting(1998)。共同配送模式之探討。機械工業雜誌 Journal of the Mechatronic Industry，184
17. 林哲弘(1999)。Dell大廠分析。資訊工業透析，三月號
18. 徐壽政(1998)。長鞭效應之情境分析模式 A comprehensive model for analyzing the scenarios of bullwhip effect。國立交通大學工業工程與管理學系。
19. 張伯芳(1996)。以系統動力學觀點探討我國半導體產銷問題。元智大學管理研究所。
20. 張順教(1999)。台灣電子資訊業的未來走向。經濟前瞻 Economic Outlook Bimonthly，64
21. 許耀輝(1999)。個人電腦產業競爭態勢分析。資訊工業透析，五月號
22. 陳銘崑 Chen, Ming-Kuen(2002)。供應鏈管理對企業電子化應用的整合效益。工業自動化電子化，8
23. 湯玲郎 Tang, Ling-Lang、林燦偉(1997)。中國工業工程學會八十六年會論文集。
24. 董興國(1996)。半導體IC工業之產銷體系模擬研究。元智大學管理研究所。
25. 鄭穎聰 Cheng, Andy(2000)。供應鏈長鞭效應因應政策之研究 The study of solving the bullwhip effect of supply chain policy。國立台北科技大學生產系統工程與管理研究所。
26. 鄧振源 Teng, Junn-Yuan、曾國雄 Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung(1989)。層級分析法（AHP）的內涵特性與應用（上）。中國統計學報 Journal of the Chinese Statistical Association，27(6)
27. 賴士葆 Lai, Shyh-Bao(1991)。生產／作業管理－理論與實務。華泰書局。
28. 蘇雄義 Su, Ivan S. I.(1999)。1999國際物流研討會論文集。
29. 顧志遠 Guh, Yuh-Yuan(1996)。多架構AHP模式建立之研究 A Study of Multiple Structures of AHP。管理與系統 Journal of Management & Systems，3(2)

1. 高偉力、柯亞先、林能蕾(2018)。供應鏈廠商之策略規劃：以化妝品原料供應商為例。管理資訊計算，7(2)，1-19。