题名

A Grey Prediction Model with Factor Analysis Technique

并列篇名

結合因素分析技術之灰色預測模式

DOI

10.29977/JCIIE.200411.0002

作者

林彥宏(Yen-Huang Lin)；王正腎(Jean-Shyan)；白炳豐(Ping-Feng Pai)

关键词

灰色預測 ； 多因子 ； 因素分析 ； 灰關聯指數 ； 量化權重 ； Grey prediction ； Multi-factor ； Factor analysis ； Grey relational grade ； Quantitative weights

期刊名称

工業工程學刊

卷期/出版年月

21卷6期（2004 / 11 / 01）

页次

535 - 542

内容语文

英文
中文摘要

在過去，灰色預測模式已經被廣泛應用在處理短期且原始資料的預測上。然而，在原始的方法中僅僅單一因子被考虑在預測模型中，但在實際問題中卻往往有一個以上之影響因子在在。因此，本文將退出一種結合因素分析技術的灰色預測模型來處理上述所提之多因素影響之預測問題。此預測架構包含三個階段：第一階段爲影響因素的評估；其次爲質化因子轉換成以灰色關聯指數爲基的量化權重之過程；最後在第三階段將上述兩階段之結果應用於灰色預測中。根據實際之數值計算結果顯示，本研究中所提出之預測架構的確優於現有其他之預測方法。
英文摘要

In tradition, the grey theory is wildly employed for dealing with short-term prediction problems with rare data. However, only one factor has been considered in the conventional model. In most cases, prediction problems usually consist of more than one factor. Therefore, a grey prediction model with factor analysis technique is proposed in this study to deal with series prediction problems with multi-factor. Three stages are conducted in this study. The factor evaluation is performed in stage one. In addition, the transformation of the qualitative measure to the quantitative measure of the grey relational grade is conducted in stage two. Finally, the prediction procedure based on results of stage one is performed in the third stage. Numerical results show that the proposed model outperforms the other existing models.
主题分类 工程學 > 工程學總論
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