台灣財政政策的動態效果－結構向量自我迴歸模型的運用

The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Taiwan: A Structure VAR Approach

10.6164/JNDS.9-1.4

黃琝琇(Wen-Hsiu Huang)

財政政策 ； 財政赤字 ； 結構向量自我回歸 ； Fiscal Policy ； Government Budget Deficit ； Structural Vector Autoregression

國家發展研究

9卷1期（2009 / 12 / 01）

145 - 186

繁體中文

本文利用結構向量自我迴歸模型，並採取Blanchard and Perotti (2002)提出的認定方法，探討台灣財政政策對總體經濟變數的動態效果。基本模型變數包含GDP、政府支出、政府收入、國際收支經常帳差額、物價與利率，延伸模型為比較政府收支結構組成的影響差異。研究結果顯示，政府支出相對政府收入，對其他總體變數的累積影響較大，但兩者的產出效果皆很有限。在政府收支結構的效果比較方面，政府投資的累積產出效果大於政府消費，但政府投資的持續性動能小於政府消費；而直接稅的累積產出效果大於間接稅。在財政政策對國外部門影響方面，財政支出與收入衝擊對國際收支差額的效果皆為負，而財政盈餘增加（或赤字減少）使國際收支經常帳差額先減後增。

This paper employs a structural VAR approach and the identification scheme developed by Blanchard and Perotti (2002) to analyze the macroeconomic effects in Taiwan. The macroeconomic variables in the basic model are real GDP, government expenditure, government revenue, current account to GDP ratio, GDP deflator and interest rate. In the extended models, we compare the components of government expenditure and revenue effects. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, the government expenditure impacts on economic activities are stronger than government revenue impacts. However, both impacts of the government spending and revenue on output are very small. Second, government investment shocks have greater effects on output than government consumption shocks, and direct taxes have greater effects than indirect taxes. Third, the government spending and revenue shocks have negative effects on current account, but the response of current account to the budget surplus (deficit) shocks is more variable.

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