Time-stamping Predictive Strategy for Multi-echelon Inventory Control with Uncertain Lead Time

針對帶不確定提前期的多級庫存控制的時間戳預測策略

10.6186/IJIMS.2012.23.3.3

利節(Jie Li)；柴毅(Yi Chai)；彭冕(Mian Peng)

多級庫存 ； 供應鏈 ； 時間戳預測策略 ； 不確定訂單延遲 ； 不確定生產延遲 ； Multi-echelon inventory ； supply chain ； time-stamping predictive strategy ； uncertain order delay ； uncertain production delay

International Journal of Information and Management Sciences

23:3（2012 / 09 / 01）

273 - 286

英文

本文提出一個針對多級供應鏈模型中的庫存管理，將其定義為一個離散時變系統，和制定一種時間戳預測控制算法。通常，大多數的研究只考慮固定的生產時間，並且忽略訂單延遲。但是，提前期是導致長鞭效應的最主要因素。因此，在構建供應鏈模型時，需考慮不確定訂單延遲和不確定生產延遲；並且為獲得穩定庫存，在每次優化迭代中，更新係數矩陣以克服不確定提前期和隨機客戶需求帶來的庫存波動。與模型預測控制和最大庫存策略相比，仿真結果驗證了該算法在庫存控制上的魯棒性和長鞭效應上的有效性。

This paper proposed a time-stamping predictive control for inventory management where multi-echelon supply chain model is formulated as a discrete time-varying system. Generally, fixed production time is considered in most researches and order transmittal time is ignored. But lead time is one of most significant factors to induce bullwhip effect. Thus uncertain order delay and uncertain production delay are both taken into account while constructing supply chain model. For steady inventory, coefficient matrixes are renovated in the optimal iterations to overcome the storage perturbation under unsure lead time and stochastic customer demands. Simulations are compared with standard model predictive control and order-up-to strategy and computational results show the robustness on inventory control and validity on bullwhip effect.

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