Determinants of Traffic Fatalities in Taiwan

影響台灣交通死亡人數之因素

10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.3.3

傅格倫(G. Vorel)；高淑珍(S. C. Kao)；吳建興(C. H. Wu)；吳傳春(C. C. Wu)

交通死亡人數 ； 台灣 ； 法律變數 ； 社會經濟變數 ； Traffic fatalities ； Taiwan ； legal variables ； socioeconomic variables ； helmets

International Journal of Information and Management Sciences

25卷Special Issue（2014 / 09 / 01）

iii+233 - 249

英文

交通事故成本中最昂貴的可以說是死亡人數，特別是對人類造成的損失。本研究以Peltzman在1975所提出的模式為基本理論基礎，探討法律變數（包括酒駕法及安全帽法）與社會經濟變數（包括人均可支配收入、酒的精真實價格、燃料的實際價格、失業率、車輛數目、以及長期趨勢）對交通事故死亡人數的影響。本研究以1991至2012年的資料為依據，透過建立OLS迴歸模式來求得其影響結果。主要研究發現為：安全帽法、失業率及長期趨勢對交通事故死亡人數有顯著的抑制效果；然而，人均可支配收入及車輛數目對交通事故死亡人數有顯著的增長效果。本研究同時也提出相關管理意函及建議。

Fatalities are the most costly item of road accidents, particularly due to the loss of potential human output. This paper is based on a modified Peltzman model from 1975 and it estimates coefficients of legal variables (alcohol law and helmet law, both defined as the highest monetary fine for violating the respective law in real terms) and socioeconomic variables (real disposable income per capital, real price of alcohol, real price of fuel, unemployment rate, number of vehicles, and secular trend) against monthly numbers of fatalities in 1991- 2012 time period by using time series OLS multiple regression analysis. The result reveals that helmet law together with unemployment rate and secular trend have a significantly reducing effect whereas real disposable income and number of vehicles have a significantly increasing effect on fatalities. Particular emphasis was laid on explaining the reducing impact of helmet law. Implications and suggestions are also addressed.

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