高速鐵路列車需求模式之研究

A Train Demand Model for High Speed Rail Service

10.6402/TPJ.200103.0089

謝汶進(Wen-Jin Hsieh)；李治綱(Chi-Kang Lee)

鐵路運輸 ； 列車需求 ； Railway transportation ； Train demand

運輸計劃季刊

30卷1期（2001 / 03 / 30）

89 - 109

繁體中文

全日或尖峰小時之旅運需求預測對大眾運輸營運者在營運規劃的過程中之幫助有限，以鐵路運輸業者而言，各種列車服務型式之需求探討是列車服務規劃與設計之第一步。因此，本文旨在探討鐵路在已知列車服務計畫下，旅客對不同停站方式等服務型式的選擇行為。分析方法上將旅客的列車選擇行為建構成一個路徑選擇問題；亦即將列車服務計畫轉換為一個列車服務之路網，旅客之各種旅行成本轉換為各路段上之一般化旅行成本；再據之以交通量指派方法求解。本文以台灣高鐵的資料建立範例，應用確定性使用者均衡、及羅吉特(Logit)與普羅比(Probit)等隨機使用者均衡方法測試。

The efficiency and effectiveness of the railway service plan is centrally important in railway operation. In order to design a good service plan, the knowledge of passenger's choice of train service is essential. Therefore, this paper attempts to present a train demand model in which the passenger's choice of train service is a route choice problem with a train service network and a generalized cost function. Hence, traffic assignment methods can be used to assess the demand of each train service. A numerical example is used to demonstrate the modeling process, and to show the results by deterministic user equilibrium method, and logit and probit stochastic user equilibrium methods.

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