利用模糊近似推論方式構建通勤者決策行為模式

Using Fuzzy Approximate Reasoning Processes in Modeling Commuters' Decision Behavior: A Case Study

10.6402/TPJ.200212.0679

董啟崇(Chee-Chong Tong)；趙祖佑(Tsu-Yu Chao)

模糊理論 ； 近似推論 ； 通勤行為 ； 出發時間與路徑決策 ； 控制實驗 ； Fuzzy set theory ； Fuzzy approximate reasoning ； Travel decision ； Departure time and route choice ； Controlled experiment

運輸計劃季刊

31卷4期（2002 / 12 / 30）

679 - 707

繁體中文

傳統通勤決策行為研究常利用機率性模式處理實際決策不確定性的問題，但近來模糊理論應用於解釋事物存在模稜兩可現象已漸被接受，尤其對於主觀認知與判斷所產生之模糊特性利用模糊理論加以解決已是一主要方法，而在董啟崇、趙祖佑相關研究中亦證明通勤決策過程中之模糊特性；因此本研究以模糊理論結合近似推論(approximate reasoning)方法為基礎，構建模糊化之旅運行為架構，期望嘗試解釋通勤決策過程中之不確定性，並利用適當之模式來描述模糊通勤決策行為。在實證部分，本研究以平日駕駛小客車通勤於台北－淡水之淡江大學教職員及學生為研究範例之實證對象，利用控制實驗(controlled experiment)方式，以真實的通勤者在模擬的通勤環境下，進行連續數日的決策實驗，對其決策行為過程加以觀察與記錄。本研究利用系統化方式分析出發時間與路徑決策行為，並以模糊化旅運行為架構為基礎，構建六個程序性通勤推論決策模型，解釋通勤行為過程；並以實證樣本為基礎，依目前之條件與限制，在上述六個模式中選取三個，針對決策模型進行模式推論結果與實際決策之符合程度進行實證分析，而結果顯示利用近似推論模式之結果對於實際決策行為之符合度平均達七成以上，此結果說明本研究所構建之模式具有相當程度之適用性。

Probability or stochastic choice models have been widely applied to address the uncertainty of traveler's decision behavior On the other hand, Zadeh's fuzzy set theory introduced, to address the phenomenon of ambiguous events rather than random nature may be suitable for exploring human decision behavior such as travel decisions. This study is an attempt to apply fuzzy reasoning method to study travel behavior with a case of auto-driving commuters' daily departure time and route choices. Within such framework, driver perceptions of uncertain outcome of attributes affecting their travel choices are due to vagueness rather than randomness. A rule-based reasoning process is therefore applied to model the observed behavior rather than the commonly used utility maximization. Furthermore, a systematic hierarchy approach was implemented to describe commuters' decision process. Observations were established from a controlled experiment in which real commuters were interacting with a simulated traffic context. Six sequential departure time and route decision models were established based on fuzzy inference concepts and those preliminary observations. Each model was then paired with its respective observations. Excluding those with too few observations, three models were validated and showed promising results with matching ratios (between actual decisions and model outputs) higher than 70%.

1. 董啟崇 Tong, Chee-Chong趙祖佑 Chao, Tsu-Yu(2002)。通勤者決策行為模糊特性分析。運輸學刊 Journal of the Chinese Institute of Transportation，14(1)
   連結：
2. Akitama, T.Shao, C. F.(1993).Fuzzy Mathematical Programming for Traffic Safety Planning on an Urban Expressway.Transportation Planning and Technology,17
3. Akiyama, T.Tsuboi, H.(1996).Proceeding of Highways to the Next Century Conference.Hong Kong:
4. Chang, Gang-LenMahmassani, H. S.Herman, R.(1985).A Macroparticle Traffic Simulation Model to Investigate Peak-period Commuter Decision Dynamics.Transportation Research Record,1005
5. Chen, L.May, A.Auslander, D.(1990).Freeway Ramp Control Using Fuzzy Set Theory for Inexact Reasoning.Transportation Research, A,24
6. Chiu, Stephen(1992).Proceedings of the Intelligent Vehicles Symposium.
7. Grivas, D. A.Shen, Y. C.(1995).Use of Fuzzy Relation to Manage Decisions in Preserving Civil Infrastructure.Transportation Research Record,1497
8. Hendrickson, C.(1984).The Flexibility of Departure Times for Work Trips.Transportation Research, A,18(1)
9. Horowitz, A. J.(1978).The Subjective Value of the Time Spent in Travel.Transportation Research,12
10. Kalic, M.Teodorovic, D.(1997).Proceedings of the 9th EURO Conference Fuzzy Sets in Traffic and Transport Systems.
11. Kalic, M.Teodorovic, D.(1997).Proceedings of the 34th INFORMS.
12. Kikuchi, S.Chrkroborty, P.(1993).Car-following Model Based on Fuzzy Inference System.Transportation Research Record,1365
13. Kikuchi, S.Perincherry, V.Chakroborty, P.Takashi, H.(1995).Modeling of Driver Anxiety During Signal Change Interval.Transportation Research Record,1399
14. Kikuchi, S.Riegner, J. R.(1994).Methodology to Analyze Driver Decision Environment During Signal Change Intervals: Application of Fuzzy Set Theory.Transportation Research Record,1368
15. Lotan, T.Koutsopoulos, H. N.(1993).Models for Route Choice Behavior in the Presence of Information Using Concepts from Fuzzy Set Theory and Approximate Reasoning.Transportation,20
16. Mahmassani, H. S.Stephan, D. G.(1989).Experimental Investigation of Route and Departure Time Choice Dynamics of Urban Commuters.Transportation Research Record,1203
17. Mahmassani, H. S.Tong, C. C.(1986).Availability of Information and Dynamics of Departure Time Choice: Experimental Investigation.Transportation Research Record,1085
18. Mamdani, E. H.Assilian, S.(1975).An experiment in linguistic synthesis with a fuzzy logic controller.International Journal of Man-Machine Studies,7(1)
19. Nakatsuyama, M.Nagahashi, N.Nishizuka, N.(1983).Proceedings IFAC 9th Triennial World Congress.
20. Pappis, C.Mamdani, E.(1977).A Fuzzy Controller for a Traffic Junction.IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics,SMC-7
21. Sasaki, T.Akiyama, T.(1988).Traffic Control Process of Expressway by Fuzzy Logic.Fuzzy Sets and Systems,26
22. Sayers, T.Bell, M. H. G.(1996).Proceedings of the 4th European Congress on Intelligent Techniques and Soft Computing.
23. Simon, H.(1955).A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice.Quarterly Journal of Economics,69
24. Teodorovic, D.Kalic, M.(1995).A Fuzzy Route Choice Model for Air Transportation Networks.Transportation Planning and Technology,19
25. Teodorovic, D.Kikuchi, S.(1990).Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis.University of Maryland College Park.
26. Tong, Chee-Chung(1990).A Study of Dynamic Departure Time and Route ChoiceBehavior of Urban Commuters.Austin, Texas:Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin.
27. Vythoulkas, P. C.Koutsopoulos, H. N.(1994).Modeling Discrete Choice Behavior Using Concepts from Fuzzy Set Theory, Approximate Reasoning and Neural Networks.Oxford:ESRC Transport Studies Unit, University of Oxford.
28. Xu, W.Chan, Yupo(1993).Estimation an Origin-destination Matrix with Fuzzy Weights, Part 1: Methodology.Transportation Planning and Technology,17
29. Zadeh, L. A.(1973).Outline of A New Approach to The Analysis of Complex Systems and Decision Processes.IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics,3(1)
30. 張有恆 Chang, Yu-Hern徐村和 Hsu, Tsuen-Ho(1993).Traffic signal installation by the export system using fuzzy set theory for inexact reasoning.Journal of Transportation Planning and Technology,17
31. 張美香 Chang, Mei-Shiang陳惠國 Chen, Huey-Kuo(1994)。模糊路徑資訊之交通網路流量問題探討。運輸 Transportation，25
32. 張禎誼(1998)。模糊理論應用於逐日動態通勤行為之研究。淡江大學運輸科學研究所。
33. 廖曉萍(1996)。自小客車通勤者出發時間與路徑選擇動態行為之研究。淡江大學土木工程研究所。
34. 趙祖佑 Chao, Tsu-Yu(1998)。模糊理論應用於通勤駕駛者出發時間與路徑決策行為之研究。淡江大學運輸科學研究所。
35. 藍武王 Lan, Lawrence W.王日昌 Wang, Jih-Chang江勁毅 Chiang, Chin-I(1994)。模糊控制跟車模式之探討。運輸 Transportation，25