航空公司班機誤點延滯擴散與控制之研究

Flight-Delay Propagation and Control Strategies

10.6402/TPJ.200309.0447

許巧鶯(Chaug-Ing Hsu)；鍾惠存(Huey-Tswen Jong)；黃惠如(Huei-Ju Huang)

誤點延滯擴散 ； 延滯控制策略 ； 緩衝時間 ； Delay propagation ； Delay-controlled strategies ； Buffer time

運輸計劃季刊

32卷3期（2003 / 09 / 30）

447 - 477

繁體中文

本研究依據航空運輸誤點的特性探討班機誤點延滯擴散情形，以及在機門使用和轉運上所造成之班機誤點延滯影響，並分析班機誤點延滯擴散之範圍，建立一套臨時飛航事件的誤點延滯因應策略。本文首先分析各種班機誤點延滯情形，包括同一航機不同班次間之推擠性誤點、同一機門不同航機在班次間之推擠性誤點、以及班機因轉運所造成之推擠性誤點三種情況，依據各種推擠性誤點延滯之特性，分別構建推擠性誤點延滯時間推估模式，並探討在班次鏈下可能之班機推擠性誤點延滯擴散範圍。繼而，就各種推擠性誤點延滯狀況探討可行之誤點延滯控制方案。在延滯控制層面，考量各因應措施之控制成本與延滯損失，以評估合適之誤點延滯控制方案；另在考量發生延誤機率時，分別以因誤點產生之總成本最小以及將後續班次推擠性誤點控制於某一範圍內兩個目標，分析航空公司應如何重新規劃班次間緩衝時間，以減少經常性之班機誤點延滯擴散情形。最後，則以國內航空公司之實際誤點資料，進行實例分析。結果顯示，緩衝時間確實對班機誤點延滯擴散產生相當大之影響，緩衝時間愈短，班機誤點延滯擴散情形愈發嚴重；另旅客時間價值增加或承載率降低，對航空公司之班機延滯控制策略有極大影響。而根據以往誤點數據應用於本研究模式所推估之推擠性誤點時間以及誤點延滯擴散範圍，結果相當準確；重新規劃之班機間緩衝時間也適合航空公司採用，可驗證本研究模式確實可行。

This study explored the propagation conditions of flight delays in different situations, including the same aircraft used for consecutive flights, the same gate used by various aircrafts and passenger transfer requirements between different flights. The study then derived the extent of flight-delay propagation, and established a set of delay-control strategies on controlling the propagation of the flight delays caused by incidents in the above three situations. In this study, knock-on delay propagations were defined and analyzed first, and then mathematical models were formulated to derive the extents of various flight-delay propagations according to the characteristics of three different knock-on delays. Then, the study proposed a variety of feasible control schemes for controlling flight delay propagations, and evaluated these schemes by comparing time and costs for both airlines and travelers. Furthermore, how airlines can re-plan the buffer time to minimize the long-term flight delay propagation were discussed. Finally, flight schedule and delay data on domestic Taipei-Kaohsiung flights of Airline C were collected. The models were applied to show their application and feasibility. The results showed that buffer time between flights affects flight delay propagation greatly, and flight-delay propagation will be serious if buffer-time is short. The results were reasonable as knock-on delay time and delay propagation range estimated by models were compared with those from past delay statistics. The adjusted buffer-time was shown to significantly improve the delay propagation problems for airlines, and verified the model's usefulness and feasibility.

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