汽機車能源消耗與污染排放管理策略之決策支援系統

A Management Strategy Decision Support System for Energy Consumption and Emissions of Cars and Motorcycles

10.6402/TPJ.200912.0323

邱裕鈞(Yu-Chiun Chiou)；溫傑華(Chieh-Hua Wen)；陳一昌(I-Chang Chen)；閻姿慧(Barbara T. H. Yen)；喻世祥(Shyh-Shyang Yuh)

能源消耗 ； 污染排放 ； 汽機車 ； 決策支援系統 ； Energy consumption ； Emissions ； Car and motorcycle ； Decision support system

運輸計劃季刊

38卷4期（2009 / 12 / 30）

323 - 353

繁體中文

本文建立一套汽機車管理策略決策支援系統，用以分析各種管理策略所能達到之全國及各縣市污染排放與能源消耗之減量效果。本系統包含模式庫、資料庫及使用者介面等三大元件。其中，模式庫（本系統之核心）包括全國型及區域型汽機車持有、車型車齡及使用等三類型個體選擇模式，共計24個模式。資料庫則儲存各模式顯著變數之數值（依縣市而異）及能耗與排污係數值。使用者介面則利用Flash MX軟體撰擬而成。為驗證本系統之應用性，本文針對油價調漲50%及汽燃費改隨油徵收兩項策略，進行推估。結果顯示當油價上漲50%時，由於汽機車間之高度替代效果及機車之低油價彈性，導致總行駛里程、能源消耗及CO2排放量僅下降約9.60~13.35%，而污染排放量更僅只下降5~6%。至於汽燃費改隨油徵收，亦僅使能耗與污染下降約1.27%~2.95%。

This paper develops a decision support system for estimating total energy consumption and emissions of cars and motorcycles under various management strategies. The system contains three key components: Modelbase, Database and User interface. The Modelbase, the core of this system, entails a total of 24 disaggregate choice models, including nationwide and regional ownership, type and vintage choice and usage models of cars and motorcycles, while the Database contains the values of the significant variables for various cities/counties and coefficients of energy consumption and emissions for various type and vintage categories of cars and motorcycles. The User interface is programmed by Flash MX. To validate the applicability of the system, two management strategies are analyzed: 50% increase in gas price and mile-based fuel costs. With a 50% increase in gas price, the total miles traveled, energy consumption and CO2 emissions are curtailed only by approximately 9.60~13.35% and emissions of NOx, CO and HC are curtailed at even lower ratios (about 5~6%) due to the high substitution effect between car usage and motorcycle usage and low gas price elasticity of motorcycle usage. As to the strategy of mile-based fuel costs, only 1.27%~2.95% reductions in energy consumption and emissions are achieved.

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