兩岸渡輪發展策略與市場需求分析之研究

The Development Strategies and Marketing Demand Analysis for Cross-Strait Ferry Transportation

賴文泰(Wen-Tai Lai)；呂錦隆(Jin-Long Lu)

海運客運 ； 海峽兩岸 ； 渡輪 ； Marine transportation ； Cross Strait ； Ferry

運輸計劃季刊

43卷3期（2014 / 09 / 30）

237 - 263

繁體中文

隨著開放大陸人士來臺觀光、兩岸直航等政策下，海峽兩岸之旅運需求預期將持續成長。然槍視現階段往返兩地的方式，無論是經港澳轉機、直航、或小三通皆尚存有若干限制。在此情形下，渡輪憑藉著票價較低、容量較大、可輔以海上觀光之特性，有機會成為往返兩岸的新興運具。惟兩岸渡輪無論於供給面（航線、船型、渡輪中心）或需求面，皆存在值得進一步檢視之課題，此等課題迄今尚無客觀、深入之探究。在此背景下，本研究首先藉由資料蒐集、文獻回顧與深度訪談法探討了兩岸渡輪的最適船舶與可能航線；其次，採階層分析法（analytic hierarchy process, AHP）針對渡輪中心之最適區位進行建議；最後，藉混合羅吉特模型分析兩岸渡輪市場之需求，其模型之實證分析結果顯示，旅行時間、旅行成本、多樣化熱食及影音服務、旅次目的、同行人數、所得等，為顯著影響兩岸運輸方式選擇之變數，且不同旅次目的之旅運者旅行時間、旅行成本之偏好存有異質性，其中，商務旅次較重視旅行時問，非商務旅次較重視旅行成本。在此特性下，兩岸渡輪市場定位可設定於非商務旅次，並憑藉票價、餐飲、娛樂設施之競爭優勢，預期其市場需求將有發展之潛力。

Since the policies of direct flights and openness towards Chinese tourists, travel demand between China and Taiwan is expected to grow continuously. Nonetheless, there are still restrictions on all modes of transportation, which include direct flights, transfers in Hong Kong and Macau, or transfers in Kinmen and Matsu across the Taiwan Strait. Under such circumstances, ferries can be a good alternative due to their lower fare larger capacity, and leisure attractions. However, few studies have ever considered the issues related to the potential demand analysis of cross-strait ferry transportation, the sizes and types of the vessels, and possible service routes. This research first discussed the strategy of developing a cross-strait ferry market by collecting related information, reviewing important literature, and using in-depth interviews. Second, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis was used to find the best locations for ferry ports. Finally the mix logit model was utilized to analyze the demand of the cross-strait ferry market. The outcomes indicate that travel costs, travel times, various food and entertainment, trip purposes, the number of passengers, and income have significant impacts on choice behavior. Besides, there is heterogeneity in the perception of travel times and travel costs for travelers with different trip purposes. In summary, business travelers put travel time in first place while non-business travelers care about travel costs the most. This study can provide some insights for industries to set marketing strategies.

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