災害下考量永續因素之運輸系統恢復力最佳化模型建立之研究

TRANSPORTATION RESILIENCE OPTIMIZATION MODEL UNDER DISASTER WITH THE CONSIDERATION OF SUSTAINABILITY

胡大瀛(Ta-Yin Hu)；吳宥萱(You-Shiuan Wu)

恢復力 ； 災害 ； 運輸網路 ； 永續性 ； Resilience ； Disaster ； Transportation network ； Sustainability

運輸計劃季刊

45卷4期（2016 / 12 / 30）

277 - 299

繁體中文

氣候變遷在近年來已經成為相當重要的議題，且氣候變遷導致自然災害的發生越來越頻繁，也越來越嚴重。由於交通建設在災害下是非常脆弱的，所以必須擬定計畫來增強其恢復力。然而恢復力的概念較模糊且較難被量化，永續性議題也較少被納入考慮，所以本研究之目的在於探討運輸系統中恢復力與永續性間的關聯，並提出一個數學模型以量測運輸系統於災害下之恢復力及永續性。本研究著重於不同假設與限制下，災前及災後的運輸路網恢復力最佳化，並納入永續性作為考量因子，主要目標為建立一個能夠連結恢復力及 永續性之最佳化模式。此最佳化模式是根據多指標系統建立，欲藉由有效率的資源分配來執行災前準備及災後復原工作，以提升運輸系統之恢復力。災害下之恢復力指標數據藉由交通指派模擬軟體DynaTAIWAN 模擬求得，而恢復力與永續性指標間之權重由分析層級程序法 (AHP) 來求得。本研究將以2014年高雄市氣爆事件進行實證研究分析，以應用及驗證此整合 性模式，並且設定多個情境來實驗。最後依據求得之結果可擬訂相關建議，供有效資源分配計畫及災前防範計畫參考之用，且可納入永續性作為考慮 的一環。執行災前準備及災後復原工作，不僅可以改善災害下的路網績效，還能提升永續程度，尤其是災前的準備工作。另外，預算的增加能使永續程度快速提升，因此考慮永續必須先有充足的經費預算考量。

Climate change has become a critical issue in recent year, and lead to natural disasters happen more frequently and seriously. Transportation infrastructures are vulnerable under disasters, so resilience enhancement plan is necessary to conduct. However, resilience is a relative vague concept and hard to quantify, and seldom takes sustainability into consideration, so the purpose of this research is to discuss the connection of resilience and sustainability in transportation systems and to formulate the mathematical model for measuring transportation resilience with the consideration of sustainability under disasters. This research focuses on the pre-disaster and post-disaster optimization of network resilience and sustainability under different assumptions and constraints. The main objective is to establish an optimization model that can both consider transportation resilience and sustainability. The optimization model based on multiple indicators are proposed to improve transportation resilience by efficient resource allocation for pre-disaster preparedness and post-disaster recovery actions. DynaTAIWAN is used to evaluate the resilience index under disasters, and AHP method is used to combine multiple indicators. The experts think coping capacity is the most important indicator. Empirical study of Kaohsiung Gas Explosions in 2014 is carried out to illustrate the application, and different scenarios are carried out in experiments. The results can offer some advices for efficient resource allocation plans and disaster prevention enforcement plans when sustainability is considered. Taking preparedness and recovery actions can not only improve network performance under disaster but also increase the level of sustainability, especially for preparedness. Further, level of sustainability increases most rapidly with respect to budget. Thus, enough budget is needed for considering sustainability.

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