傭船人原油運輸航路選擇之成本效益評估模式

APPLICATION OF COST-BENEFIT EVALUATION FOR CRUDE OIL TRANSPORTATION ROUTE SELECTION BY CHARTERER

韓子健(Tzeu-Chen Han)；王志敏(Chih-Ming Wang)

油輪租金 ； 航路選擇 ； 原油價格 ； Tanker charter hire ； Route selection ； Fuel price

運輸計劃季刊

47卷2期（2018 / 06 / 30）

121 - 145

繁體中文

本研究應用因果關係檢定來驗證油輪租金，原油價格和燃油價格之間的關係，檢驗的結果發現由於油輪租船業務策略的改變，油輪租金與原油價格之間存在負相關，當原油價格回落至低油價時，由於交易商等待價格上漲，因此傾向先將低價原油以繞遠路運送方式或直接儲存於海上，例如油輪租賃者決定在航行繞經好望角（南非）增加數千海浬的距離，或者拋錨在海上將其作為原油油庫，期待航行結束時可以從原油價格上漲獲利。在這種情況下原油運輸供應將會被凍結，因此預計未來幾個月油輪運價將上漲。我們還研究了從波斯灣到鹿特丹的原油運輸路線選擇繞遠路不具有任何成本效益，而基本上油輪以繞遠路運送方式或直接儲存於海上，是利用時間延遲獲取在原油市場的低買高賣獲取利益的機會。

This analysis examines the relationship between tanker freight rates, crude oil price and fuel price using base granger causality test. The result shows that due to the changes of tanker charterer's business strategy, the relationship between tanker freight rates and crude oil price is negative. When crude oil prices decline to low price level, in order to wait for the price to rise, traders would keep cruising or storage the crude oil at sea. For instance, some tanker charterers would choose to take the route around the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa), which is thousands of nautical miles further than usual, or they would anchor offshore as a ＂crude oil floating storage＂, so that they could earn more money by the end of the voyage. As a result, the transport of crude oil supply was frozen and significant increase in the tanker freight rate was unavoidable in the following months. We also examined the cost-benefit of the crude oil transportation route between Persian Gulf and Rotterdam, which turned out to be ineffective. The reason of selecting long distance route and anchoring at sea, which extend sailing time is to gain profit by speculating in crude oil market.

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