洪災保險的購買意願：以基隆河中下游沿岸居民為例

The Attitude for Buying Flood Insurance: A Case of the Residents Along the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Keelung River

洪鴻智(Hung-Chih Hung)；黃欣怡(Hsin-Yi Hwang)

天然災害症候群 ； 洪災保險 ； 條件評價 ； 都市防災 ； 揣測－參考理論 ； Contingent valuation ； Flood insurance ； Natural disaster syndrome ； Prospective reference theory ； Urban disaster prevention

都市與計劃

30卷3期（2003 / 11 / 01）

241 - 258

繁體中文

由於怠於事前防範及個人缺乏從事減災的誘因，使洪災現象常形成所謂的「天然災害症候群」。本文的主要目的，即在藉由分析居民對洪災保險引為防災手段的接受態度、內涵及影響其接受性的主要因素，瞭解天然災害症候群的可能成因。文中引用揣測－參考（prospective reference theory）理論，應用條件評價法（contingent valuation method），以基隆河中下游沿岸居民的調查為例，發現受體特性、對政府防災策略的態度及社會資訊信任，乃決定是否購買洪災保險的重要因素。另處於較高災害潛勢或對災害報導機率給予較高權重的受訪者，購買洪災保險之意願愈高。

The challenge associated with reducing losses from flood can be attributed to what shall call the ”natural disaster syndrome”. It results from two interrelated components: limited interest in protection prior to a disaster, and lacked incentives to reduce the potential losses from future disaster. This article focuses on understanding the attitude of residents for buying flood insurance and the factors influencing the decision on whether purchasing an insurance policy. Using a contingent valuation surveying for the residents along the Keelung River, it illustrates that the characteristics of exposure, the attitudes towards the government's disaster prevention measures and social information trust appear heavy influence the likelihood of respondents for buying flood insurance. We find that with more weight given the prior and reported probability of disaster event the more likely to purchase insurance.

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