環境保護永續評量系統建置方法與問題剖析

Methods for Measuring the Sustainability of the Environment

10.6128/CP.32.2.125

劉怡廷(Yi-Ting Liou)；駱尚廉(Shang-Lien Lo)

綜合指數 ； 永續性隸屬函數 ； 情境模擬 ； 倒續推演 ； 未來研究 ； Overall index ； Sustainability membership function ； Scenario matrix ； Back-casting analysis ； Future studies

都市與計劃

32卷2期（2005 / 06 / 01）

125 - 144

繁體中文

本文首先對「台灣永續評量系統」計畫中完成之環境保護指標評量建置方法與成果提出說明；台灣環境品質指標在專家建議與資料建置情況之考量下，擬定了13個相關指標，其中6個指標列為經建會評估民國九十二年至九十四年台灣永續發展執行績效與考評國家公共建設之用。本文進一步就永續評量研究計畫中使用的PSR架構在水資源發展上之評估提出說明，並闡述PSR模式邊界限制、學門間連結不充分以及以人類為中心的弱永續思維提出檢討；此外，以數學運算式的本質對指標數值量化與指標合成方法提出建議，在數值量化上建議參考傳統水質指標品質函數數值無因次化的方式建立指標的永續隸屬函數，並比較算數平均加總運算式與幾何平均加總運算式在合成永續評量綜合指數之結果。文章最後提出以未來研究作為永續發展研究之理論基礎，並提供未來研究方法中之情境模擬(scenario analysis)與倒續推演(backcasting)作為後續永續發展評量方法之建議。

The methods used to evaluate environmental status for the project of ”Sustainable Taiwan Evaluation System” and the results of the study were described Thirteen indicators were decided to specify environmental status for Taiwan based on the experts' opinions and data availability Among of the thirteen indicators, six of them were listed to demonstrate the environmental Taiwan Sustainable Development (SD) indicator system Then, the methods applying on the project and the results of the study were discussed Three critical arguments are investigated after applying Pressure-Sate-Response (PSR) model as a tool for interpreting sustainable development monitoring system on water resources, which are ”boundary setting”, ”insufficient integrating”, and ”simplified thinking”. Besides, the sustainable rating curves for the employed variables were recommend for standardizing measurements of the variables Furthermore, the results of using the geometric mean and the arithmetic mean respectively to aggregate the membership values of variables to yield an overall sustainable index were shown At the last, two popular future studies' methods, scenarios and back casting analysis, were introduced for further sustainable development research in the future.

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