汐止市土地利用時空間變遷模式

Spatiotemporal Trends and Model in Land-use Patterns in Hsichih City

10.6128/CP.33.3.231

吳振發(Chen-Fa Wu)；林裕彬(Yu-Pin Lin)

土地利用變遷 ； 景觀生態指數 ； 二元羅吉斯迴歸 ； 土地使用分區 ； Land use change ； Landscape ecological metrics ； Binary logistic regression ； Zoning

都市與計劃

33卷3期（2006 / 09 / 01）

231 - 259

繁體中文

土地利用的時空間變化趨勢與預測模式已成為研究土地利用變遷的主要方向之一，本研究目的在於瞭解汐止地區土地利用時空間變遷趨勢及影響因子，並建立預測模式。在土地利用結構時空間變遷分析上，以景觀生態結構指數分析都市計畫區、鄉村區、一般農業區、山坡地保育區及森林區內整體土地利用、建成地、草地、林地的變化趨勢，並與整個汐止市的變化趨勢（林裕彬等，2004）進行比較，探討土地使用分區對空間結構變遷之管制效力。根據空間結構變遷的趨勢發現1998年為汐止市土地利用變遷的重要轉折點，因此本研究進一步以十個變數試圖建立1990、1998、2001及1990-1998、1998-2001年三個時間點與兩個時間區間土地利用分佈與變遷二元羅吉斯迴歸模式，並探討影響土地利用分佈與變遷因素的差異性。 研究結果顯示，汐止市全市與各土地使用分區間景觀生態指標的變動具有三種互動關係，且土地使用分區管制導致各區的空間結構變遷呈現不同的趨勢。土地利用分佈模式，林地與建成地模型的解釋力較高，草地較低，十個變素皆會影響1990、1998、2001年建成地、林地與草地的分佈。1990-1998、1998-2001年兩階段四種土地利用變遷的二元羅吉斯迴歸模式，發現各土地利用轉變的影響因素有很大的差異，顯示本研究區土地利用變遷影響因素的複雜性。後續研究應朝向完整土地利用變遷預測模式的建立，進一步預測未來土地利用變遷及管理對策之研擬。

Research addressing land use spatiotemporal change and predictive models is a major issue in land use cover and change(LUCC). The objective of this study is to set up a land use change prediction model and identify impact factors for land use distribution and change in Hsichih City. Landscape metrics are applied to analyze landscape structures in urban planning, rural and agricultural areas, and protected hill and forested areas from 1990 to 2001. The differences between zones are then compared. According to landscape structure analysis, the landscape has changed dramatically since 1998. Moreover, ten factors are input into binary logistic regression to build up land use distribution models for 1990, 1998, and 2001 and land use change models for 1990-1998 and 1998-2001 on the following four land use change situations: forest to building area; forest to grass; grass to building area; and, grass to forest. Analytical results demonstrate that landscape structure change has three interactive relationships between entire area and zones. Moreover, the land use control system and zoning let to different landscape structures in each zone. However, these ten factors affected forest and building area distribution in 1990, 1998 and 2001. Thus, both binary logistic models have a high R^2 for forested and building areas, and a low R^2 value for the grass distribution model. Land use change prediction models indicate that the binary logistic model for forest change to building area in 1998 has a high R^2, whereas the other models have low R^2 values. All impact factors have different affects on each model, indicating that complex factors influenced land use change in Hsichih City from 1990 to 2001. Therefore, social and economic factors must be considered in the model to predict future land use change.

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